GBPAUD could see the British pounds upswing on economic data print and technical information.
Bank of England (BoE):
Rate: 4.25% (cut from 4.5% in May 2025).
Outlook: Further cuts likely, but pace depends on inflation (currently 2.6% YoY) and growth (Q1 GDP: 0.4%) .
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):
Rate: 4.10% (cut from 4.35% in February 2025).
Outlook: Markets price a 54% chance of a 50 bps cut on May 20, potentially lowering rates to 3.6% .
Differential:
Current: +0.15% in favor of GBP.
Expected: Narrowing as RBA cuts outpace BoE easing.
Directional Bias by Time Frame
Short-Term (Days to Weeks)
Bearish GBPAUD
Fundamentals: Aggressive RBA cuts (potential 50 bps) vs. BoE’s gradual easing. Weak Australian inflation (core CPI: 2.9% in Q1) supports RBA dovishness .
Fundamentals: UK inflation expected to rise to 3.5% in Q3 2025, delaying BoE cuts. AUD faces headwinds from China trade tensions and commodity volatility .
Fundamentals: UK fiscal tightening and political stability vs. Australia’s reliance on China-driven commodity demand. BoE’s slower easing path (projected 4.2% by Q3 2025) vs. RBA’s deeper cuts (3.1% by 2026) .
summery
RBA Decision (May 20): A 50 bps cut would accelerate AUD weakness.
UK Inflation (Q3 2025): A spike above 3.5% could pause BoE cuts, boosting GBP.
Commodity Prices: AUD sensitivity to iron ore/coal prices amid China’s trade policies.
RBA AND BOE central banks monitory policy rhetoric's is key to trade directional bias with BOE favored on rate hold and AUD structural vulnerabilities and 50 % anticipated rate cut pressure AUD and boost GBP BUYING POTENTIAL.
Bank of England (BoE):
Rate: 4.25% (cut from 4.5% in May 2025).
Outlook: Further cuts likely, but pace depends on inflation (currently 2.6% YoY) and growth (Q1 GDP: 0.4%) .
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):
Rate: 4.10% (cut from 4.35% in February 2025).
Outlook: Markets price a 54% chance of a 50 bps cut on May 20, potentially lowering rates to 3.6% .
Differential:
Current: +0.15% in favor of GBP.
Expected: Narrowing as RBA cuts outpace BoE easing.
Directional Bias by Time Frame
Short-Term (Days to Weeks)
Bearish GBPAUD
Fundamentals: Aggressive RBA cuts (potential 50 bps) vs. BoE’s gradual easing. Weak Australian inflation (core CPI: 2.9% in Q1) supports RBA dovishness .
Fundamentals: UK inflation expected to rise to 3.5% in Q3 2025, delaying BoE cuts. AUD faces headwinds from China trade tensions and commodity volatility .
Fundamentals: UK fiscal tightening and political stability vs. Australia’s reliance on China-driven commodity demand. BoE’s slower easing path (projected 4.2% by Q3 2025) vs. RBA’s deeper cuts (3.1% by 2026) .
summery
RBA Decision (May 20): A 50 bps cut would accelerate AUD weakness.
UK Inflation (Q3 2025): A spike above 3.5% could pause BoE cuts, boosting GBP.
Commodity Prices: AUD sensitivity to iron ore/coal prices amid China’s trade policies.
RBA AND BOE central banks monitory policy rhetoric's is key to trade directional bias with BOE favored on rate hold and AUD structural vulnerabilities and 50 % anticipated rate cut pressure AUD and boost GBP BUYING POTENTIAL.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.