GBPCHF Breakout Eyes 1.1190–1.1290 as Bullish Momentum Builds
GBP/CHF has broken out of a descending wedge formation on the 4H chart, indicating a bullish shift in momentum. This move is supported by a recovering GBP, driven by better-than-expected UK GDP data and BoE easing expectations already priced in. Meanwhile, CHF is softening on safe-haven unwinding and a less aggressive SNB tone. Technicals point to a clean breakout with immediate upside targets at 1.1116 and 1.1190, with potential extension toward 1.1290.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Descending wedge breakout on the 4H chart — a bullish continuation pattern.
Breakout Confirmation: Price is now trading above wedge resistance (~1.1045), showing follow-through buying.
Support zone: 1.1000–1.1040 (retest area if price pulls back)
Fibonacci Levels:
1.1116 → 50% Fib retracement + prior resistance
1.1190 → 61.8% Fib and historical reaction zone
1.1290 → 78.6% retracement and next key resistance
📈 Bullish Signals:
EUR/GBP overlay shows inverse correlation supporting GBP strength
Higher lows forming since April → structure is rising
Clean breakout with space to run before major resistance hits
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
UK Q1 GDP: +0.6% q/q — solid beat vs expectations
BoE Positioning: Rate cut expected in H2 2025, but not imminent; GBP supported in the meantime
Trade Conditions: Signs of recovery, but BoE not overly dovish yet
Market Tone: GBP favored short-term due to economic resilience
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):
SNB Stance: Recent tone shift toward caution amid deflation signals
Safe Haven Demand: Easing due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks
Macroeconomic Data: Mixed; CPI soft, and growth modest
CHF Outlook: Mildly bearish unless geopolitical risk reignites
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Breakout already underway at 1.1050
Upside Targets:
1.1116 (first TP)
1.1190 (major resistance zone)
1.1290 (extension zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1000 (below wedge retest zone)
Strategy: Buy-the-dip on pullback to 1.1040–1.1015, or hold breakout long
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF shows a clean bullish breakout both technically and fundamentally. With the UK economy showing near-term resilience and the SNB expected to remain cautious, GBP strength may persist in the short run. Unless geopolitical risks resurface to revive CHF demand, the pair looks poised for a rally toward 1.1190 and possibly 1.1290 in the coming sessions.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Pattern: Descending wedge breakout on the 4H chart — a bullish continuation pattern.
Breakout Confirmation: Price is now trading above wedge resistance (~1.1045), showing follow-through buying.
Support zone: 1.1000–1.1040 (retest area if price pulls back)
Fibonacci Levels:
1.1116 → 50% Fib retracement + prior resistance
1.1190 → 61.8% Fib and historical reaction zone
1.1290 → 78.6% retracement and next key resistance
📈 Bullish Signals:
EUR/GBP overlay shows inverse correlation supporting GBP strength
Higher lows forming since April → structure is rising
Clean breakout with space to run before major resistance hits
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
UK Q1 GDP: +0.6% q/q — solid beat vs expectations
BoE Positioning: Rate cut expected in H2 2025, but not imminent; GBP supported in the meantime
Trade Conditions: Signs of recovery, but BoE not overly dovish yet
Market Tone: GBP favored short-term due to economic resilience
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF):
SNB Stance: Recent tone shift toward caution amid deflation signals
Safe Haven Demand: Easing due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks
Macroeconomic Data: Mixed; CPI soft, and growth modest
CHF Outlook: Mildly bearish unless geopolitical risk reignites
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Breakout already underway at 1.1050
Upside Targets:
1.1116 (first TP)
1.1190 (major resistance zone)
1.1290 (extension zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.1000 (below wedge retest zone)
Strategy: Buy-the-dip on pullback to 1.1040–1.1015, or hold breakout long
🧭 Conclusion
GBP/CHF shows a clean bullish breakout both technically and fundamentally. With the UK economy showing near-term resilience and the SNB expected to remain cautious, GBP strength may persist in the short run. Unless geopolitical risks resurface to revive CHF demand, the pair looks poised for a rally toward 1.1190 and possibly 1.1290 in the coming sessions.
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.