For JPY-weakness I think GBP/JPY still makes for a compelling argument, especially when compared to EUR/JPY. I looked at a big spot of Fibonacci resistance that came into play earlier in the week and bulls spent three days stumbling there until sellers took firmer hold today. But - now there's another major level that's in-play and that's the 193.61 level, which has reference to all the way back in the Financial Collapse...
In August of 2008 GBP/JPY closed the month at 198.08. September opened with a far different feel, and the pair gapped-down to 193.61 to begin the month. That gap was partially filled in September but for the next seventeen years has continued to carry weight. In 2015, on the heels of Abe-nomics launching huge Yen-trends, GBP/JPY found resistance at the bottom of that gap for three months before ultimately reversing.
And then last March, that gap came back into play as resistance and in the year since, it's had a big pull on price, in both directions. Most recently that 193.61 level was resistance for the past two weeks - until the Monday breakout (and breakdown in the Yen) launched the pair past the 195.00 level. But now that Yen bulls have clawed back that early-week loss, GBP/JPY is back to testing this as short-term support, as taken from prior resistance.
Like EUR/JPY in the prior post the weekly close here is huge, as bulls failing to defend this level would not only spell a more bearish looking weekly bar, but they would be giving up defense of a major long-term level in the pair. But - until there's greater evidence of Yen-strength, GBP/JPY makes for a compelling argument for Yen-weakness scenarios, perhaps even moreso than USD/JPY with the 145.00 level a little further away. -js
In August of 2008 GBP/JPY closed the month at 198.08. September opened with a far different feel, and the pair gapped-down to 193.61 to begin the month. That gap was partially filled in September but for the next seventeen years has continued to carry weight. In 2015, on the heels of Abe-nomics launching huge Yen-trends, GBP/JPY found resistance at the bottom of that gap for three months before ultimately reversing.
And then last March, that gap came back into play as resistance and in the year since, it's had a big pull on price, in both directions. Most recently that 193.61 level was resistance for the past two weeks - until the Monday breakout (and breakdown in the Yen) launched the pair past the 195.00 level. But now that Yen bulls have clawed back that early-week loss, GBP/JPY is back to testing this as short-term support, as taken from prior resistance.
Like EUR/JPY in the prior post the weekly close here is huge, as bulls failing to defend this level would not only spell a more bearish looking weekly bar, but they would be giving up defense of a major long-term level in the pair. But - until there's greater evidence of Yen-strength, GBP/JPY makes for a compelling argument for Yen-weakness scenarios, perhaps even moreso than USD/JPY with the 145.00 level a little further away. -js
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.