Short

Updated

It is a short trading week

Week of March 26 to March 29
This week is a short Trading week, market is closed on Friday.

Pair is confined in the range of 150.00 - 147.00
Pair is negative as long as it is contained by 150.00
Will monitor above areas to take positions.

====

Short taken @ 149.50 SL above 150.00 TP 148.75

Note

Notice that it is irregular market today and for this week as well.
Although US indices opend higher but they are cooling off the highs while writing, this gradual fall is expected to affect the pair negatively to down ward

Note

The pair is Net Long opening the door for aggressive bearish action towards 147.00 area

Note

150.00 area is behinde us at least for now

Note

I can see that soem indicators are showing long for the pair, but I highly doubt that

Note

Area of 148.50 - 148.75 is very possible

Note

DJI lost 100 points from the highs, still more downside to be reflected on GBPJPY

Note

Position is intact and going to downside

Note

VIX is above 23 and opening door for more losses in US indices and GBPJPY

Note

DJI lost 189 points from the highs while writing

Note

FTSE & DAX are back in red

Note

Pair is touching 149.50 area one more time, good chance to add one more short

Note

Closed one position with +20 pips @ 149.30

Note

The original position is still on

Note

DJI lost 237 points from the highs while writing

Note

Harmonic: Bearish Butterfly on H4 and M15

Note

Watching the H1 and M30 to detect harmonic formation

Note

DJI -260 from today's high while writing

Note

VIX is above 24 while writing

Note

Remeber: this is irregular week of trading

Note

Added one more short @ 149.49

Note

Pair is overbought and poised for losses

Note

Pair breaks the today's high, but passing the high point by a couple of pips is not a confirmation that pair will surge upside, it came back again below 149.60

Note

DJI is erasing some losses but it is still 100 point below today's high

Note

what really worries me is the VIX down to 22.53

Note

If VIX continues further down to below 20 or 18 things will not be on our side at all

Note

Pair is really facing strong resistance by the 149.60 149.65 area, could not surpass it for three consecutive attempts

Note

will continue holding the two positions of shortong from 149.50 and 149.49

Note

Will continue holding the two positions of shorting from 149.50 and 149.49

Note

US indices are bouncing off the lows and taking irregular pattern of price action, that may delay our bearish scenario on the GBPJPY

Note

Guys, please notice that price may vary from a broker to another, ...

Note

It is taking long time hovering around the 149.60's area

Note

It is takingf long time hovering around 149.60's area

Note

DJI is giving up around 100 points gving more cues to GBPJPY below 149.60's area

Note

VIX is well above 22

Note

If we see VIX climbing to 24 or 25 it is going to be very promissing for acceleration to downside on GBPJPY and US indices as well

Note

Hurdles on the way down:
149.33 , 149.22 , 148.88
Clearing all of the above will take the price to 148.75 and 148.65

A new hurdle will come up down there by 148.60 if broken price will take down to 148.40

Note

US DJI is moving up limiting losses to around -45 points makes thinks looking not very promising

Note

DJI is only loosing 18 points from the high, does not look good

Note

Quick Fix: Doubling up short positons new 4 shorts from 149.75

Note

Looking to clear all positons by 149.60 area

Note

VIX is below 22

Note

Getting ready for the pair to be in the 149.60's area

Note

Situation is turning difficult may attempts to 150.10 then roll back below 150.00
Will monitor it closely

Note

eye on US indices and VIX

Note

Last time pair visited above 150.00 it only hit 150.31 briefly and then back down to very close to 147.00 (21st of March) - It was sent lower from 150.18 (22nd of March
It is cooling off now by 150.10, you may call it lower highs has been on the making since 21st of March, so we will have the same negative look of the pair for now and watch the above 150.00 levels

Note

4 hrs Harmonic side @ 20:00 system time a bearish Butterfly formed D was on the high of 150.31 and is still in effect till today, the low touched till today was the 147.67, the target of 147.00 still to happen

Note

If no positions carried forward I would have a fresh sell from here 149.98 on the back of the failure of the 150.00 area with at least 100 pips target

Note

The pair is not able to break through the 150.20 level resistance for the last four hours, will be looking at this level and monitor a fall from here to make sure that positions are well safe

Note

SUM UP of Opened Positions:
All Short From
149.49 (1)
149.50 (1)
149.75 (4)

If market continue down it will hit 148.75

In case of delayed action we will look to liquidate positons @ 149.65 - 149.60 area

Hurdles on the way down: 149.44 , 149.20 , 149.00, 148.79 IF all clreared 148.50-148.40 area will be touched, a break below will take price to 148.00 and 147.80

Keep in mind that pair is negative for the week if 150.00-- 150.31 area hold as resistance (since 21st and 22nd March)

Note

Watching the failure to happen and get the pair well below 150.00 level

Note

If pair stay well below 149.93 selling pressures will be back on

Note

when Hurdle is mentioned means that price may take sometime before clearing the price or may be reverse from there

Note

What is really making it difficult is the stability above the 150.00, hope that it is a benign stability due to market dead time

Note

The pair is facing strong resistance on two levels 150.22 (4Hrs R1)
150.31 Strong Resistance level of March 21st

Note

JP225 opened higher but pair got not impact on either sides, will continue to monitor the price action for one hour before taking a decision

Note

Could not break the 21st of March high and strong resistance of 150.31
Managed to visit below 150.22 support level of 4hrs previously resistance
Pair is hovering around 150.18 while writing, the move down ward to be confirmed soon when pair move below 150.00 and stay well below 149.93

Note

JP225 Lost 50 points taking the pair down close to 150.00 level, waiting to inch lower well below 150.00 149.93 area

Note

Things to keep in mind and do not forget in the middle of the market actions>>>>GBP is weak as a single currency, JPY is strong as a single currency, Brexit Deal hope details are declared and leaves the situation uncertain. That leads to lower GBPJPY, The pair is over priced by all measures and there is no harm for one more test of 147.00 level before being defined on which direction to go

Note

This pair drives any one to be crazy

Note

will close all position in loss in case if pair breaks above 150.315

Note

if price contained below that level we will continue holding all shorts

Note

Price is still contained by 151.315 the brief inching higher did not last and pair swiftly back below 150.315, will continue to hold positions now around 150.27 while writing

Note

Break above today's high of 150.37 may turn things ugly, if happens all closed in loss, if price contained below then closing all opened positions by 149.65 will be a good idea

Trade closed manually

Closed in loss
Will take rest of the week off

Note

WE would have been in profits if we followed the weekly outlook and be a bit patient, anyways trade has run and now we decided to take a week off, it is a short week by having Market closed on Friday

Jack_Brown

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Jack_Brown