📊 1. COT Analysis
JPY (Japanese Yen):
Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March.
Recent Changes:
Long: -5,319
Short: +1,235
➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength.
GBP (British Pound):
Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short)
Recent Changes:
Long: +7,404
Short: -9,015
➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing.
🔎 COT Summary:
Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY.
📅 2. Seasonality – June
Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows.
Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years).
➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June.
🧠 3. Retail Sentiment
Short: 52%
Long: 48%
➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario.
📉 4. Technical Analysis
Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary.
Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections.
Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance.
Downside Targets:
First: 193.076
Second: 191.439
Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal.
➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
JPY (Japanese Yen):
Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March.
Recent Changes:
Long: -5,319
Short: +1,235
➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength.
GBP (British Pound):
Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short)
Recent Changes:
Long: +7,404
Short: -9,015
➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing.
🔎 COT Summary:
Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY.
📅 2. Seasonality – June
Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows.
Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years).
➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June.
🧠 3. Retail Sentiment
Short: 52%
Long: 48%
➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario.
📉 4. Technical Analysis
Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary.
Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections.
Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance.
Downside Targets:
First: 193.076
Second: 191.439
Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal.
➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
Trade active
Position on GBP/JPY: my trade closed the week with a minor drawdown. The position is already open.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.