A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Once price hits the imbalance an update will be provided and the re-analysed zone will be subject to short.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.
Previous analysis updates are below:
155 Price target
Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection.
Weekly Imbalances The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent.
Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges.
The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled.
Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities.
Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers will be trapped with further imbalance buy power.
Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps.
Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase.
The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances.
Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold.
Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion.
Fibonacci pathway in which price is following smoothly since the low with a great test of the 50% retracement as expected. There pivot points are clear with the imbalances and align in the historical data where 'whipsaw' effects occur, this is showing a clear indication of an imbalance and fractal pattern creating the fresh level.
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