Key Observations Across Timeframes:
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
Short-term (M15, M30):
Price is consolidating near 189.200, testing the previous daily low (PDL) for liquidity.
A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred, signaling short-term bearish control.
The price is hovering at a key demand zone (PWL - 188.500/187.800).
If price breaks below 188.800, further downside is likely.
Mid-term (H1, H4):
The price rejected equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000), showing weakness.
A Change of Character (ChOCH) to the downside suggests a bearish trend continuation.
Liquidity below PWL (187.800) could be a target before a potential bounce.
Long-term (D1):
The price is in a larger downtrend, failing to break above premium zones (~190.500 - 192.000).
Liquidity below PWL (~188.000 - 187.500) is uncollected, making it a likely target.
The next major support lies in the discount zone (~185.500 - 186.500).
2. Key Liquidity Zones & Supply/Demand Areas:
Premium Zone (~190.500 - 192.000): Major resistance; rejection happened here.
Equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000): Price failed to hold above, signaling weakness.
Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500): Next strong demand area if price continues lower.
Previous Daily Low (PDL - 188.800): Price is testing this level for liquidity; a break here could lead to further downside.
Previous Weekly Low (PWL - 187.500): Untapped liquidity below, making it a strong target for price movement.
Probability-Based Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation to 187.800 - 186.500 (Break Below PDL & PWL)
Probability: 65%
Reasons:
Failure to hold above equilibrium (189.800).
Bearish BOS & ChOCH confirmations on H1/H4 suggest a move down.
Liquidity below 188.000 (PWL) remains uncollected.
Strong daily downtrend supports further downside.
Bearish Confirmation:
If price breaks and holds below 188.800, expect a move toward 187.500 - 186.500.
2. Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone (Bounce from 188.500 - 187.500)
Probability: 35%
Reasons:
Potential liquidity grab at PWL (188.000 - 187.500) before reversing.
Demand zone at 187.500 - 186.500 could cause a bullish reaction.
If price holds above 188.800, we may see a bounce to 189.800 - 190.000.
Bullish Confirmation:
If price fails to break below 188.500, a push back toward equilibrium (189.800) is possible.
Final Thoughts & Trade Plan:
Bearish bias (65% probability) for continuation toward 187.800 - 186.500.
Key Confirmation Levels:
Below 188.800: Bearish toward 187.500 - 186.500.
Above 189.200: Potential bullish recovery toward 189.800 - 190.000.
Trade Setup Overview:
Bias: Bearish (65% probability)
Entry Type: Breakout & Retest
📉 Sell (Short) Trade Setup:
🔴 Entry: Below 188.800 (Confirmed BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 188.200 (PWL - Previous Weekly Low)
TP2: 187.800 (Liquidity sweep level)
TP3: 186.500 (Major discount zone)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 189.400 (Above minor liquidity)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Strong candle close below 188.800 (Break & retest scenario)
No immediate bullish rejection at 188.500
📈 Buy (Long) Trade Setup (Lower Probability - 35%)
🟢 Entry: Above 189.200 (Bullish rejection & BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 189.800 (Equilibrium zone)
TP2: 190.500 (Supply zone)
TP3: 191.500 (Major resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 188.700 (Below structure low)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Price needs to hold above 189.200 with strong bullish momentum.
No immediate rejection from equilibrium (189.800).
🛠️ Execution Tips:
🔄 Wait for a clear breakout & retest before entering.
⚖️ Adjust lot size based on risk tolerance (~1-2% per trade).
🕰️ Monitor price action on the lower timeframes (M15/M30) for entry precision.
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
Short-term (M15, M30):
Price is consolidating near 189.200, testing the previous daily low (PDL) for liquidity.
A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred, signaling short-term bearish control.
The price is hovering at a key demand zone (PWL - 188.500/187.800).
If price breaks below 188.800, further downside is likely.
Mid-term (H1, H4):
The price rejected equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000), showing weakness.
A Change of Character (ChOCH) to the downside suggests a bearish trend continuation.
Liquidity below PWL (187.800) could be a target before a potential bounce.
Long-term (D1):
The price is in a larger downtrend, failing to break above premium zones (~190.500 - 192.000).
Liquidity below PWL (~188.000 - 187.500) is uncollected, making it a likely target.
The next major support lies in the discount zone (~185.500 - 186.500).
2. Key Liquidity Zones & Supply/Demand Areas:
Premium Zone (~190.500 - 192.000): Major resistance; rejection happened here.
Equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000): Price failed to hold above, signaling weakness.
Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500): Next strong demand area if price continues lower.
Previous Daily Low (PDL - 188.800): Price is testing this level for liquidity; a break here could lead to further downside.
Previous Weekly Low (PWL - 187.500): Untapped liquidity below, making it a strong target for price movement.
Probability-Based Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation to 187.800 - 186.500 (Break Below PDL & PWL)
Probability: 65%
Reasons:
Failure to hold above equilibrium (189.800).
Bearish BOS & ChOCH confirmations on H1/H4 suggest a move down.
Liquidity below 188.000 (PWL) remains uncollected.
Strong daily downtrend supports further downside.
Bearish Confirmation:
If price breaks and holds below 188.800, expect a move toward 187.500 - 186.500.
2. Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone (Bounce from 188.500 - 187.500)
Probability: 35%
Reasons:
Potential liquidity grab at PWL (188.000 - 187.500) before reversing.
Demand zone at 187.500 - 186.500 could cause a bullish reaction.
If price holds above 188.800, we may see a bounce to 189.800 - 190.000.
Bullish Confirmation:
If price fails to break below 188.500, a push back toward equilibrium (189.800) is possible.
Final Thoughts & Trade Plan:
Bearish bias (65% probability) for continuation toward 187.800 - 186.500.
Key Confirmation Levels:
Below 188.800: Bearish toward 187.500 - 186.500.
Above 189.200: Potential bullish recovery toward 189.800 - 190.000.
Trade Setup Overview:
Bias: Bearish (65% probability)
Entry Type: Breakout & Retest
📉 Sell (Short) Trade Setup:
🔴 Entry: Below 188.800 (Confirmed BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 188.200 (PWL - Previous Weekly Low)
TP2: 187.800 (Liquidity sweep level)
TP3: 186.500 (Major discount zone)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 189.400 (Above minor liquidity)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Strong candle close below 188.800 (Break & retest scenario)
No immediate bullish rejection at 188.500
📈 Buy (Long) Trade Setup (Lower Probability - 35%)
🟢 Entry: Above 189.200 (Bullish rejection & BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 189.800 (Equilibrium zone)
TP2: 190.500 (Supply zone)
TP3: 191.500 (Major resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 188.700 (Below structure low)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Price needs to hold above 189.200 with strong bullish momentum.
No immediate rejection from equilibrium (189.800).
🛠️ Execution Tips:
🔄 Wait for a clear breakout & retest before entering.
⚖️ Adjust lot size based on risk tolerance (~1-2% per trade).
🕰️ Monitor price action on the lower timeframes (M15/M30) for entry precision.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.