GBPJPY probably falling down

I think this two scenarios are probably for GBPJPY currency pair.
but short position is more probable, because a strong resistance is abow of the price.
one of the resistance is from Feb 2020 and the other one from Nov 2020 so I prefer the price falling until 61.8% and 50.0% fibonacci levels.
Beyond Technical AnalysisChart PatternsTechnical Indicators

Disclaimer