SHORT GBPNZD ON RALLIES INTO 1.81: RBNZ GOV WHEELER HIGHLIGHTS
The market took RBNZ Wheelers comments as largely hawkish before fading off to neutral after interestingly Wheeler mentioned that the current market rate tracker has 35bps of cuts priced in - illuding to 2 more cuts being likely though he failed to mention how realistic this expectation is past what future data holds.
I like being short GBPNZD into 1.81 rallies with 100pips tp at 1.80 - the market has remained somewhat capped/ rangebound since the RBNZs decision on the 10th between 1.81-79 and 1.81 has held on a number of occasions on the m30 (about 20) so shorts here look firm and i think will continue to be, especially since the GBP rates spike on friday looks to be tamed with the 1.81 and i expect this to fade throughout th eweek giving more reason than not for gbp downside - especially vs NZD since there isnt any data to get in the way this week and last weeks above average employment report was the last say (along with Wheelers comments now). On a side note and for similar reasons I like to be short gbpusd as Fed Yellens speech is largely likely to be skewed to the hawkish side given the other speakers last week trying to reaffirm the Feds control - though durable and GDP data remains the biggest risk imo - a miss here and cable will likely trade into the 1.33 handle, though i would still maintain my fade on rallies and sell here.
RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speech Highlights:
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS MONETARY POLICY FACES CHALLENGES IN TURBULENT TIMES
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS SCOPE OF MONETARY POLICY CONSTRAINED BY DEVELOPMENTS OUTSIDE COUNTRIES' BORDERS
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS CURRENT INTEREST RATE TRACK BALANCES A NUMBER OF RISKS WHILE GENERATING INCREASE IN CPI INFLATION
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS TWI FX RATE ALREADY AT HIGH LEVEL
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETTING MOST APPROPRIATE FRAMEWORK
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS CURRENT INTEREST RATE TRACK INVOLVES EXPECTED 35 BASIS POINTS OF CUTS
I like being short GBPNZD into 1.81 rallies with 100pips tp at 1.80 - the market has remained somewhat capped/ rangebound since the RBNZs decision on the 10th between 1.81-79 and 1.81 has held on a number of occasions on the m30 (about 20) so shorts here look firm and i think will continue to be, especially since the GBP rates spike on friday looks to be tamed with the 1.81 and i expect this to fade throughout th eweek giving more reason than not for gbp downside - especially vs NZD since there isnt any data to get in the way this week and last weeks above average employment report was the last say (along with Wheelers comments now). On a side note and for similar reasons I like to be short gbpusd as Fed Yellens speech is largely likely to be skewed to the hawkish side given the other speakers last week trying to reaffirm the Feds control - though durable and GDP data remains the biggest risk imo - a miss here and cable will likely trade into the 1.33 handle, though i would still maintain my fade on rallies and sell here.
RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speech Highlights:
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS MONETARY POLICY FACES CHALLENGES IN TURBULENT TIMES
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS SCOPE OF MONETARY POLICY CONSTRAINED BY DEVELOPMENTS OUTSIDE COUNTRIES' BORDERS
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS CURRENT INTEREST RATE TRACK BALANCES A NUMBER OF RISKS WHILE GENERATING INCREASE IN CPI INFLATION
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS TWI FX RATE ALREADY AT HIGH LEVEL
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS FLEXIBLE INFLATION TARGETTING MOST APPROPRIATE FRAMEWORK
-RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER SAYS CURRENT INTEREST RATE TRACK INVOLVES EXPECTED 35 BASIS POINTS OF CUTS
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