GBPNZD Targets 2.18 – Watch for Breakdown from Rising Channel
GBPNZD is showing signs of topping after testing key resistance near the 2.25 zone. A rising channel has broken to the downside, followed by a bearish consolidation structure on the daily timeframe. With the BoE divided on rate cuts and the RBNZ likely holding firm amid sticky inflation, the macro landscape favors a bearish correction. Technical targets align with prior swing zones at 2.2000, 2.1840, and 2.1540.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Structure:
Multiple rising wedge and channel breakdowns
Recent failed attempt to retake 2.2510 (50% fib level)
Bearish flag forming beneath broken structure
Key Resistance:
2.2510–2.2570 zone capped price multiple times
Downside Targets:
2.2000 → Previous structure + fib confluence
2.1840–2.1810 → Key support zone (Feb–March lows)
2.1540 → Major trendline/test level and historical support
📉 Bias: Bearish
📐 Trigger: Breakdown below minor support (~2.2450) confirms continuation
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
BoE split on rate cuts: Some members (Taylor) pushing for action, others cautious due to sticky inflation
UK Q1 GDP beat (+0.6%), but manufacturing data weak and inflation expectations rising
Overall: GBP momentum slowing amid policy indecision and trade risks
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD):
RBNZ holding firm: Inflation still above target; central bank cautious
NZD stronger on risk-on mood and China stabilization
Potential upside if AUD/NZD weakens further (cross correlation)
🎯 Trade Setup
Sell Bias below 2.2450–2.2480 zone
Target 1: 2.2000 – structural support
Target 2: 2.1840 – key March low
Target 3: 2.1540 – deeper swing support
Stop Zone: Above 2.2570 – invalidates the bearish flag thesis
This trade offers a strong R:R profile if the pair breaks and sustains below 2.2450.
✅ What to Wait For Before Shorting
A strong bearish daily candle closing below 2.2450 with momentum.
OR a clean rejection wick from 2.25 with follow-through selling.
Volume increase or rejection at resistance would add conviction.
🧭 Conclusion
GBPNZD is setting up for a deeper correction after a failed bullish continuation and clean technical rejection near the 2.25 area. With macro support fading for GBP and NZD sentiment firming slightly, sellers may take control into June. A daily close below 2.2450 confirms bearish intent, with multiple downside levels open for targeting.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Structure:
Multiple rising wedge and channel breakdowns
Recent failed attempt to retake 2.2510 (50% fib level)
Bearish flag forming beneath broken structure
Key Resistance:
2.2510–2.2570 zone capped price multiple times
Downside Targets:
2.2000 → Previous structure + fib confluence
2.1840–2.1810 → Key support zone (Feb–March lows)
2.1540 → Major trendline/test level and historical support
📉 Bias: Bearish
📐 Trigger: Breakdown below minor support (~2.2450) confirms continuation
🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
BoE split on rate cuts: Some members (Taylor) pushing for action, others cautious due to sticky inflation
UK Q1 GDP beat (+0.6%), but manufacturing data weak and inflation expectations rising
Overall: GBP momentum slowing amid policy indecision and trade risks
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD):
RBNZ holding firm: Inflation still above target; central bank cautious
NZD stronger on risk-on mood and China stabilization
Potential upside if AUD/NZD weakens further (cross correlation)
🎯 Trade Setup
Sell Bias below 2.2450–2.2480 zone
Target 1: 2.2000 – structural support
Target 2: 2.1840 – key March low
Target 3: 2.1540 – deeper swing support
Stop Zone: Above 2.2570 – invalidates the bearish flag thesis
This trade offers a strong R:R profile if the pair breaks and sustains below 2.2450.
✅ What to Wait For Before Shorting
A strong bearish daily candle closing below 2.2450 with momentum.
OR a clean rejection wick from 2.25 with follow-through selling.
Volume increase or rejection at resistance would add conviction.
🧭 Conclusion
GBPNZD is setting up for a deeper correction after a failed bullish continuation and clean technical rejection near the 2.25 area. With macro support fading for GBP and NZD sentiment firming slightly, sellers may take control into June. A daily close below 2.2450 confirms bearish intent, with multiple downside levels open for targeting.
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♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.