📉 GBP/USD Elliott Wave & ICT Analysis - Long-Term Bearish Outlook
🟢 Key Observations from the Chart:
1. Macro Structure:
The pair completed a corrective B wave at 1.3050 before reversing sharply.
Wave (1) of the new bearish cycle has likely been established, with support found at 1.2096.
2. Wave (2) in Progress:
Price is currently in a relief rally, forming wave (2).
Ideal retracement zone for wave (2) lies between 1.30 - 1.34, aligning with key liquidity zones & potential fair value gaps (FVG).
A rejection from this zone will confirm the start of wave (3).
3. Projected Wave (3) Decline:
Wave (3) should be the strongest leg downward, targeting 1.13 - 1.10 initially.
Further breakdown may see sub-wave extensions reaching 1.00 and beyond.
This aligns with major institutional liquidity resting below the parity level (1.00).
4. Wave (4) Retracement:
A corrective pullback is expected after a strong wave (3) selloff.
Potential lower high formation between 1.13 - 1.15 before resumption of the final selloff.
5. Final Wave (5) Drop:
Ultimate bear target lies in the 0.95 - 0.92 region, marking the end of a full ABC cycle.
ICT models suggest deep liquidity pools beneath 1.00, making a drop below this level highly probable.
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📌 Trading Plan & Execution Strategy
💰 Short Entries:
🔹 Sell Limit: 1.30 - 1.34 (Wave 2 Completion Zone)
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 1.35 (Invalidation of Bearish Bias)
🔹 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.20 (Break of Structural Low)
🔹 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.13 (End of Wave 3)
🔹 Take Profit 3 (TP3): 1.00 (Liquidity Target)
🔹 Take Profit 4 (Final TP): 0.95 - 0.92 (Wave 5 Completion)
✅ ICT Confluence:
Liquidity Pools: Sell-side liquidity below 1.20 & 1.00
Breaker Blocks & Order Blocks: Resistance zone at 1.30 - 1.34
FVG Gaps: Aligning with Elliott Wave wave (2) retracement targets
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🎯 Summary:
GBP/USD has entered a long-term bearish cycle after failing at 1.30 - 1.34 resistance.
Expect wave (3) to deliver the strongest downside move, targeting 1.13 - 1.10 first.
Final bear target sits below 1.00, where a multi-year cycle low could be formed.
ICT & Elliott Wave align perfectly for a strong sell bias, making this a high-confidence short setup.
🚨 Bearish Confirmation: If price rejects 1.30 - 1.34 zone, expect strong sell momentum!
🟢 Key Observations from the Chart:
1. Macro Structure:
The pair completed a corrective B wave at 1.3050 before reversing sharply.
Wave (1) of the new bearish cycle has likely been established, with support found at 1.2096.
2. Wave (2) in Progress:
Price is currently in a relief rally, forming wave (2).
Ideal retracement zone for wave (2) lies between 1.30 - 1.34, aligning with key liquidity zones & potential fair value gaps (FVG).
A rejection from this zone will confirm the start of wave (3).
3. Projected Wave (3) Decline:
Wave (3) should be the strongest leg downward, targeting 1.13 - 1.10 initially.
Further breakdown may see sub-wave extensions reaching 1.00 and beyond.
This aligns with major institutional liquidity resting below the parity level (1.00).
4. Wave (4) Retracement:
A corrective pullback is expected after a strong wave (3) selloff.
Potential lower high formation between 1.13 - 1.15 before resumption of the final selloff.
5. Final Wave (5) Drop:
Ultimate bear target lies in the 0.95 - 0.92 region, marking the end of a full ABC cycle.
ICT models suggest deep liquidity pools beneath 1.00, making a drop below this level highly probable.
---
📌 Trading Plan & Execution Strategy
💰 Short Entries:
🔹 Sell Limit: 1.30 - 1.34 (Wave 2 Completion Zone)
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 1.35 (Invalidation of Bearish Bias)
🔹 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.20 (Break of Structural Low)
🔹 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.13 (End of Wave 3)
🔹 Take Profit 3 (TP3): 1.00 (Liquidity Target)
🔹 Take Profit 4 (Final TP): 0.95 - 0.92 (Wave 5 Completion)
✅ ICT Confluence:
Liquidity Pools: Sell-side liquidity below 1.20 & 1.00
Breaker Blocks & Order Blocks: Resistance zone at 1.30 - 1.34
FVG Gaps: Aligning with Elliott Wave wave (2) retracement targets
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🎯 Summary:
GBP/USD has entered a long-term bearish cycle after failing at 1.30 - 1.34 resistance.
Expect wave (3) to deliver the strongest downside move, targeting 1.13 - 1.10 first.
Final bear target sits below 1.00, where a multi-year cycle low could be formed.
ICT & Elliott Wave align perfectly for a strong sell bias, making this a high-confidence short setup.
🚨 Bearish Confirmation: If price rejects 1.30 - 1.34 zone, expect strong sell momentum!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.