By Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades
The pair advanced throughout the Asian session, pushing the dollar higher against the pound sterling. A combination of discouraging UK economic data and persistent signs of macro weakness—despite mixed JOLTS employment figures in a clearly disinflationary U.S. economy—could pave the way for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although UK PMI data beat expectations at 45.4 points last month and bank lending to individuals has been rising, the growth in money supply highlights increased household indebtedness against a backdrop of fewer mortgage approvals. Today’s dollar strength may be driven by this dovish monetary bias.
Key indicators have yet to be released, but the scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams could offer clues about the Fed’s cut timeline. The recent dollar weakness aligns with market pricing for up to four 25-basis-point rate cuts before year-end.
The latest range suggests carry-trade movements between the April 28 high at $1.34432 and today’s support zone around $1.32597. The point of control (POC) sits just above that support and below the current price. Delta zones mark strong resistance near $1.33271, a level tested on four previous occasions. The RSI rests in light oversold territory at 49.27%, having recovered from 24–26% in yesterday’s session. It’s highly likely the dollar will see pronounced moves today following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, given the market’s bearish expectations and rumors of potential U.S. “stagflation.”
The pound remains on the front foot against the dollar, supported by a macro-technical backdrop that favors further gains—provided no surprises emerge from U.S. data. The immediate focus is on employment figures and monetary policy signals.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The pair advanced throughout the Asian session, pushing the dollar higher against the pound sterling. A combination of discouraging UK economic data and persistent signs of macro weakness—despite mixed JOLTS employment figures in a clearly disinflationary U.S. economy—could pave the way for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although UK PMI data beat expectations at 45.4 points last month and bank lending to individuals has been rising, the growth in money supply highlights increased household indebtedness against a backdrop of fewer mortgage approvals. Today’s dollar strength may be driven by this dovish monetary bias.
Key indicators have yet to be released, but the scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams could offer clues about the Fed’s cut timeline. The recent dollar weakness aligns with market pricing for up to four 25-basis-point rate cuts before year-end.
The latest range suggests carry-trade movements between the April 28 high at $1.34432 and today’s support zone around $1.32597. The point of control (POC) sits just above that support and below the current price. Delta zones mark strong resistance near $1.33271, a level tested on four previous occasions. The RSI rests in light oversold territory at 49.27%, having recovered from 24–26% in yesterday’s session. It’s highly likely the dollar will see pronounced moves today following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, given the market’s bearish expectations and rumors of potential U.S. “stagflation.”
The pound remains on the front foot against the dollar, supported by a macro-technical backdrop that favors further gains—provided no surprises emerge from U.S. data. The immediate focus is on employment figures and monetary policy signals.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.