Having remained short GBPUSD since the brexit vote June 24th (see linked), now could be the time to close shorts and consider a long position in the pound.
Speculative positioning is extremely bearish and has increased to record highs in recent weeks
With sterling effectively pricing recession, rate cuts having already taken place, and rising inflationary pressures including house prices (notably for the UK economy), risk appears to be to the upside
With year-end analyst estimates reflecting this with major downwards revisions, it will take a great deal of bad news to push the pound below 1.27
I personally have been a buyer the past two days at 1.2870 and 1.2912 respectively (1.2891 average). Targeting a retracement to 1.3640 (38.2% brexit move) once 1.3316 is held on a consecutive daily close basis.
For further insight and discussion please contact me via Tradingview or LinkedIn, on Twitter @James_LVDTA, and visit lexvandam.com to become a member of the Trading Club.
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