PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS - GBPUSD: SCOTTISH UK VS UK EU REFERENDUM
This article compares the price and technical analysis of GBPUSD-0.27% in the 10-weeks leading into the two events in order to gain an execution-able advantage going into the UK EU Referendum taking place on the 23rd June 2016.
Ranges
Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14
- GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips.
- In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips
- In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips.
- from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips.
UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15
- GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770.
-In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730.
Comparisons
In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels.
Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market.
Technicals
Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14
RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of w
hich failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels.
Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility.
UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15
RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70.
Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now.
Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions.
*Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .
Ranges
Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14
- GU started the period at 1.7000 and closed the period at 1.64000, with highs at 1.7150 and lows at 1.6000 with a range of 1150pips.
- In the last 5 weeks (Aug.18th-Sep 18th) GU opened at 1.6730, closed at 1.6400 with highs at 1.6730 and lows at 1.6000 and a range of 730 pips - Close to open of 330pips
- In the last 5 weeks (Aug.1st-Sep5th 5wk comparison) GU opened at 1.6877, closed at 1.6300 with highs at 1.6877 and lows at 1.6277 and a range of 600pips.
- from week 10-13 GU shed the the Recovery/ No vote volatility gains, and traded from 1.6400 to 1.5900 with a range of 500 pips.
UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15
- GU started the period at 1.4270 and closed at 1.4500 - range of 600 pips - 1.4170 to 1.4770.
-In the last 5 Weeks (5wk comparison) however GU traded flat open to close at 1.4500-10, but with a range of 400pips 1.4340 to 1.4730.
Comparisons
In general, the Scot Ref traded/closed much closer to its ranges than the UK EU Ref has to date e.g. in the "comparative" last 5wks, Scot Ref opened at 1.6877 (which was its high also) and closed at 1.6300 (only 30 pips from its range low at 1.6270) so GU ate 570/600pips of its range - illustrating that the Scot Ref had much more directional bias since it traded and held its extreme levels.
Where as the UK EU Ref comparative 5wk period, opened at 1.4500 and closed at 1.4510, but with a range of 1.4340 to 1.4730, so GU only managed to eat/commit to 10/400pips that it ranged - illustrating that the UK EU Ref has lot direction commitment and 0 trend, it is a sideways ranging market.
Technicals
Scottish UK REF - 10 weeks = 14.July.14 to 18.Sep.14
RSI, STOCH and RVI sold off in the first weeks of the 10wk period, then remained severly under pressure for the remainder of the 8wk sell off - all of w
hich failing to break 40 and posting lows of 13 with several <20s. The event driven recovery between the 9th sep to 18th sep however helped the technicals recover to 50 levels.
Historical vol, traded in an uptrend during the first 8wk selloff from 2 to 11, before falling slightly during the recovery and spiking again to 10-12 around the REF date due to event volatility.
UK EU REF - 10 weeks = 18.April.16 to 23.June.15
RSI and RVI have been bullish, trading in the upper 60% all of the time, with several "overbrought" conditions arising at 70.
Historical vol has traded relatively flat, ranging between 6-12 with it ticking up in recent times to trade above 10 on most days now.
Stoch oscillated throughout the period, with a bias to the downside, showing two oversold conditions of <20, illustrating the bullish trend as it was the little pullbacks that caused these conditions.
*Look out for my upcoming article where i will discus what the above differences mean and what they imply price action will do in the next two weeks going into the UK EU Ref and FOMC .
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