🔍 Trade Overview
Bias: Bearish (Short Setup)
Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 4H (Short-to-Mid Term Trade)
Strategy: Trend Continuation (Sell the Rally)
🧠 Technical Analysis
Chart Analysis (4H GBP/USD)
Price is currently in a downtrend, trading within a descending channel.
There’s a marked "Sell Zone" around 1.33463, which aligns with a resistance level and prior support turned resistance.
The price appears to be pulling back towards the sell zone before potentially resuming the downtrend.
Target (TP): Around 1.30300–1.30500, matching the lower support zone and M2 pivot support.
Entry Zone: 1.33400 – 1.33650
Stop Loss: Above 1.3400–1.3420 (just above sell zone highs)
📉 Trend Projection
Projection Chart shows three scenarios:
Green (bullish): Less probable due to overall market structure.
Black & Red (bearish): Most consistent with current trend.
Trend likely to resume downward from August 5–6, in line with your chart’s projected move from the sell zone to TP.
📊 Fundamental Analysis
🔻 Labor Market (USD)
NFP Missed Forecast: Actual 73k vs. Forecast 110k (Δ -37k)
Negative for USD short-term.
However, market may have already priced in some weakness, especially if GBP weakness is the main trend driver.
📈 COT Data
GBP: More short positions (53.21%) than long (46.79%)
USD: Even more skewed bearish, with 56.48% shorts
Indicates net bearishness for both currencies, but USD slightly more shorted.
GBP COT shift more dramatic (-3.36%) = implies increasing bearish sentiment on GBP → supports the short trade idea.
🧍 Retail Sentiment
53% are long, 47% are short → Slightly contrarian bearish (retail often on the wrong side)
Retail positioning supports bearish continuation
📋 Trade Plan
▶️ Entry
Sell Limit Order: Between 1.33400 – 1.33650 (Sell Zone)
Optional: scale in with partial orders
⛔ Stop Loss
Above 1.3400 – 1.3420
Above previous highs and structure
✅ Take Profit
TP1: 1.3160 (near-term support/pivot)
TP2: 1.3050 (main TP target on chart)
TP3 (runner): 1.2950 (for extended breakdown)
📊 Position Sizing & Risk
Risk no more than 1–2% of account
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2, ideally 1:3
Bias: Bearish (Short Setup)
Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 4H (Short-to-Mid Term Trade)
Strategy: Trend Continuation (Sell the Rally)
🧠 Technical Analysis
Chart Analysis (4H GBP/USD)
Price is currently in a downtrend, trading within a descending channel.
There’s a marked "Sell Zone" around 1.33463, which aligns with a resistance level and prior support turned resistance.
The price appears to be pulling back towards the sell zone before potentially resuming the downtrend.
Target (TP): Around 1.30300–1.30500, matching the lower support zone and M2 pivot support.
Entry Zone: 1.33400 – 1.33650
Stop Loss: Above 1.3400–1.3420 (just above sell zone highs)
📉 Trend Projection
Projection Chart shows three scenarios:
Green (bullish): Less probable due to overall market structure.
Black & Red (bearish): Most consistent with current trend.
Trend likely to resume downward from August 5–6, in line with your chart’s projected move from the sell zone to TP.
📊 Fundamental Analysis
🔻 Labor Market (USD)
NFP Missed Forecast: Actual 73k vs. Forecast 110k (Δ -37k)
Negative for USD short-term.
However, market may have already priced in some weakness, especially if GBP weakness is the main trend driver.
📈 COT Data
GBP: More short positions (53.21%) than long (46.79%)
USD: Even more skewed bearish, with 56.48% shorts
Indicates net bearishness for both currencies, but USD slightly more shorted.
GBP COT shift more dramatic (-3.36%) = implies increasing bearish sentiment on GBP → supports the short trade idea.
🧍 Retail Sentiment
53% are long, 47% are short → Slightly contrarian bearish (retail often on the wrong side)
Retail positioning supports bearish continuation
📋 Trade Plan
▶️ Entry
Sell Limit Order: Between 1.33400 – 1.33650 (Sell Zone)
Optional: scale in with partial orders
⛔ Stop Loss
Above 1.3400 – 1.3420
Above previous highs and structure
✅ Take Profit
TP1: 1.3160 (near-term support/pivot)
TP2: 1.3050 (main TP target on chart)
TP3 (runner): 1.2950 (for extended breakdown)
📊 Position Sizing & Risk
Risk no more than 1–2% of account
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2, ideally 1:3
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.