The Day Ahead

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Key Economic Data Releases
United States
ISM Manufacturing Index (May)
A leading indicator for the economy. A stronger-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and raise Treasury yields.
Construction Spending (April)
Tracks activity in the construction sector, useful for GDP estimates.

United Kingdom
Net Consumer Credit & M4 Money Supply (April)
Provides insights into consumer borrowing and monetary conditions. Could impact expectations for Bank of England rate policy.

Japan
Q1 MoF Corporate Survey
Gives details on corporate investment and sentiment. Relevant for the yen and Bank of Japan policy expectations.

Italy
Manufacturing PMI (May)
A reading below 50 suggests contraction. Important for eurozone growth outlook and Italian asset risk premiums.
New Car Registrations
Measures consumer demand; useful for sentiment tracking.
Budget Balance
Signals fiscal stance; could influence bond spreads versus German bunds.

Canada
Manufacturing PMI (May)
A forward-looking business condition indicator. Could influence the Canadian dollar, especially if divergent from the US PMI.

Switzerland
Q1 GDP
Market will watch for economic resilience or slowdown. May influence Swiss franc and SNB expectations.

Central Bank Speakers
Federal Reserve
Jerome Powell (Chair)
Christopher Waller (Governor)
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President)
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President)

Market Focus:
Any remarks on inflation persistence, growth outlook, or timing of potential rate cuts could impact the USD, equity futures, and front-end yields. Waller and Logan are particularly market-sensitive.

Bank of England
Catherine Mann (MPC Member)

Market Focus:
A known hawk—her comments on inflation and rate cut timing could influence sterling and UK short-term rates.

Trading Implications
The US ISM manufacturing index is the most market-sensitive data point of the day.

Fed speakers could significantly affect interest rate expectations and USD.

UK and Japan data will influence BoE and BoJ rate path expectations, impacting GBP and JPY.

Risk assets may react to broad manufacturing PMI trends and any hawkish/dovish surprises from central bankers.

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