GBP/USD Kicking Off March 2025 and Ending Q1

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Monthly View:

The February monthly candle closed bullish, remaining within the Buy Side Imbalance (BISI) formed in November, which is still being respected.

Liquidity was swept in January, indicating that price is still being magnetized towards the imbalance and the level of 1.2800.

I anticipate that price might trade below the monthly close before making an upward move.

Weekly View:

The weekly candle closed bearish and tapped into a weekly BISI at 1.2560, where a reaction could occur.

My main focus is on the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.2550, which could act as the final support before targeting 1.2700 and possibly higher.

Note that after recent meetings, the dollar strengthened, causing price to drop and leaving behind a daily sell-side inefficiency. I would like to see price fill this inefficiency before taking out liquidity at 1.2550 and 1.2800.

Daily View:


The daily FVG at 1.2550 is crucial and could be the final support level before targeting 1.2700 and potentially higher.

4-Hour View:

There is a bearish FVG and liquidity at 1.2645, which might influence price movements.

1-Hour View:

The 1-hour chart is heavily bearish and currently in a Sell Side Imbalance (SISI) that might drive the price lower at the open.

I expect price to potentially take out 1.2550 and find support at 1.2530 before heading upwards.

Keep an eye on upcoming news this week including nfp

Key Levels to Watch:

1.2800 (monthly target)

1.2560 (weekly BISI)

1.2550 (daily FVG and potential support)

1.2645 (4-hour bearish FVG and liquidity)

1.2550 and 1.2530 (1-hour support levels)
Note
GBP/USD opened higher following the UK's commitment to support Ukraine with security and funds, along with PM Starmer and the EU's vow to back Ukraine, leading to gains for the pound and euro over the dollar. The price opened and traded above the fair value gap (FVG) at 1.25888. I expect it to reverse before heading higher, targeting 1.2621. My first trade is to sell into the FVG, then buy.

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