GBPUSD Insight

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Key Points
- A trade agreement has been signed between the United States and the United Kingdom. U.S. President Trump immediately reduced tariffs on 100,000 British-made cars from 25% to 10%, and granted exemptions on tariffs for steel, aluminum, and aircraft parts. The UK agreed to open its market to U.S. machinery, agricultural, and livestock products, committed to purchasing $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft, and decided to lower the average tariff on U.S. goods from 5.1% to 1.8%.
- President Trump commented on the upcoming high-level talks with China this weekend, stating that they "will be substantive and China wants to make a move."
- The Bank of England lowered its base interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, but with some members favoring holding the rate steady, the move is widely seen as a "hawkish cut."

Key Economic Events This Week
+ May 9: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

GBPUSD Chart Analysis
The pair is continuously attempting to break above the previous high at the 1.34000 level but has failed so far, resulting in a pullback. There are two potential scenarios to watch from here:

1. A slight additional decline followed by a rebound at the 1.31500 level, leading to another attempt to break the previous high.
2. A break below the 1.31500 level, shifting momentum to the downside and continuing a mid- to short-term downtrend toward the 1.28500 level.
We will monitor the 1.31500 level closely during this short-term decline to assess which of the two scenarios plays out.

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