GBPUSD Weekly Review: Feb 24th - 28th

The cable is still showing bullish with dollar concerns on the rates and the pound being stronger at the moment.

Last week

Monday & Tuesday: Consolidation

Wednesday: Downward breakout, filling the imbalance, forming the week's low

Thursday: Price rallied higher, taking out buy-side liquidity and ERL @1.2666

Friday: Price traded lower to close the week, closing in a 4hr buy-side imbalance

Forecast and Key Levels:

Immediate bounce off @1.2630

Potential targets if trading lower:

Weekly BISI @1.2560

Lower @1.2550

Targets on the upside:

Last week's high @1.26800

Buy-side liquidity @1.27300

Ultimate target @1.28000 which is at the monthly sibi

DXY Confluence:

DXY has a daily FVG (Fair Value Gap) to be filled, which could lead to a move lower targeting @105.40

EU and the world will aslo be following closely the Germany elecions 23rd/feb/2025.

Trade active

Price took out Friday high in today's open thanks to the completion of Germany elections. It then traded lower in London session and took out Friday's low during the NY AM session. Would like to see price trade lower today and Tuesday and probably Wednesday and fill the imbalances @1.2550 to target today's high and higher.

Note

Yesterday, the market closed bearish on Monday. Today, we anticipate the price moving up to capture the IRL at the 4-hour imbalance left as the price traded lower. Subsequently, the price should target the sell-side ERL at 1.26100 (yesterday's low) and 1.26000. Entry is left at the Asian imbalance, targeting 1.2650 and the SIBI above, which would provide a reason for the price to trade lower.

Note

Yesterday (Tuesday) Thought price would trade lower targeting PWL (ERL) but instead, London swept Asia’s and Monday’s low and closed back inside potentially creating the low of the week.
Today,(Wednesday) price opened and traded lower into a 1-hour Bullish Imbalance (BISI) from yesterday, after sweeping Monday's liquidity. The DXY confirmed this move, with its price tapping into the daily Sell-side Imbalance (SIBI). The GBP/USD took out the Asian session low, and my target is the buy-side liquidity resting above the Asian session high at 1.26776. entry the fvg @1.2643

Trade closed: target reached

Price took out todays high and the weekly high, next stop 1.27000

Note

Price Action Overview:

Price broke out lower after sweeping Monday and Tuesday's high.

President Trump's speech discussed a 25% tariff on EU exports to the US and uncertainties in the UK.

This led to a stronger dollar, breaking the perceived Tuesday weekly low and making Wednesday the weekly high above @1.2700.

Market Relationships:

Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have maintained a good relationship, which might result in a beneficial bilateral agreement, potentially leading to a tariff-free exchange.

Session Analysis:

Asian session lows have already been taken out.

Expectations are for the Asian highs to be reached after filling the imbalances left in the early London session @1.2590.

Price will target the sell-side imbalance (SIBI) left on Thursday (yesterday) @1.2645, taking out yesterday’s NY highs.

From that point, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data could move the price lower.

Weekly and Monthly Outlook:

Today is the final day of the week (bearish), which left a buy-side imbalance (BISI) unfilled @1.2560, which might be filled later.

This is also the final day of the month (bullish).

Keep in mind the PCE data release today.

hskarue

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hskarue

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