GBP/USD Bearish 90-Pip Forecast: Analysis & Strategy
Current Market Context:
As of the latest data, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3800. A 90-pip bearish target would place the pair near 1.3710. Below is the rationale and actionable plan:
Key Drivers for a Bearish Outlook
Fundamental Factors:
UK Weakness: Dovish Bank of England (BoE) rhetoric, soft UK GDP/CPI data, or rising unemployment could weaken the Pound.
USD Strength: Hawkish Fed signals (e.g., rate hike talks, tapering) or strong U.S. jobs/inflation data may boost the dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Brexit uncertainties, UK-EU trade tensions, or global risk-off sentiment favoring the USD.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels: Failure to break above 1.3850 (a key resistance) or bearish patterns (e.g., double top, descending channel).
Momentum Indicators: RSI divergence or MACD crossover signaling bearish momentum.
Moving Averages: Price below the 50/200-day EMA, suggesting a downtrend.
Trade Strategy
Entry Zone: 1.3800–1.3830 (post-retest of resistance).
Target: 1.3710 (90 pips).
Stop-Loss: 1.3870 (above recent swing high).
Risk Management:
Use 1:2 risk-reward ratio (e.g., risk 30 pips to gain 90 pips).
Adjust position size to limit exposure (e.g., 1–2% of account capital).
Critical Events to Monitor
UK Data: BoE interest rate decisions, CPI (July 19), Retail Sales.
U.S. Data: Fed meetings, Non-Farm Payrolls (August 4), CPI.
Global Catalysts: Brexit updates, geopolitical tensions.
Contingency Plan
Upside Risk: A BoE rate hike surprise or weak U.S. data could reverse the trend. Tighten stops if price breaks above 1.3870.
Alternative Scenario: If the drop stalls near 1.3750 (support), secure partial profits and trail stops.
Current Market Context:
As of the latest data, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3800. A 90-pip bearish target would place the pair near 1.3710. Below is the rationale and actionable plan:
Key Drivers for a Bearish Outlook
Fundamental Factors:
UK Weakness: Dovish Bank of England (BoE) rhetoric, soft UK GDP/CPI data, or rising unemployment could weaken the Pound.
USD Strength: Hawkish Fed signals (e.g., rate hike talks, tapering) or strong U.S. jobs/inflation data may boost the dollar.
Geopolitical Risks: Brexit uncertainties, UK-EU trade tensions, or global risk-off sentiment favoring the USD.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels: Failure to break above 1.3850 (a key resistance) or bearish patterns (e.g., double top, descending channel).
Momentum Indicators: RSI divergence or MACD crossover signaling bearish momentum.
Moving Averages: Price below the 50/200-day EMA, suggesting a downtrend.
Trade Strategy
Entry Zone: 1.3800–1.3830 (post-retest of resistance).
Target: 1.3710 (90 pips).
Stop-Loss: 1.3870 (above recent swing high).
Risk Management:
Use 1:2 risk-reward ratio (e.g., risk 30 pips to gain 90 pips).
Adjust position size to limit exposure (e.g., 1–2% of account capital).
Critical Events to Monitor
UK Data: BoE interest rate decisions, CPI (July 19), Retail Sales.
U.S. Data: Fed meetings, Non-Farm Payrolls (August 4), CPI.
Global Catalysts: Brexit updates, geopolitical tensions.
Contingency Plan
Upside Risk: A BoE rate hike surprise or weak U.S. data could reverse the trend. Tighten stops if price breaks above 1.3870.
Alternative Scenario: If the drop stalls near 1.3750 (support), secure partial profits and trail stops.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.