ridethepig | Brexit Probability Tree 2019.10.21
Updated
I have been receiving a lot of questions around the roadmap to Brexit, and with the pantomime starting again soon the aim here is to dissect the possible scenarios to Brexit and provide probabilities in the matrix. Here expecting this to be completed by year-end with Boris sprinting for the finish line. The Government is vulnerable to lose the vote given the DUP stance, however, even with elections as a 'cummings' plan B the government looks set to get this ratified before Christmas.
Seems that the numbers are there to get this through tomorrow; tracking 12 Labour MPs will switch sides and vote with Johnson can make this 319 ayes....meaning as crazy as it sounds Labour MPs will give the narrow majority.
Those wanting to dig deeper into these discussions can see the imminent 'no-deal' risk has swung around drastically (although worth noting still remains in play) and has reflected in GBP. We traded some examples of the risk swings live here as markets transition between pricing in a crash and burn scenario vis a vis a gradual material slowdown:
In any case, an orderly Brexit is still less free trade in the short-term and will not mark a recovery for the UK economy. On the monetary side, BOE will not move till Q320. Good luck to those in UK markets, jump into the comments with your ideas and charts to further the discussions!
All the best.
Seems that the numbers are there to get this through tomorrow; tracking 12 Labour MPs will switch sides and vote with Johnson can make this 319 ayes....meaning as crazy as it sounds Labour MPs will give the narrow majority.
Those wanting to dig deeper into these discussions can see the imminent 'no-deal' risk has swung around drastically (although worth noting still remains in play) and has reflected in GBP. We traded some examples of the risk swings live here as markets transition between pricing in a crash and burn scenario vis a vis a gradual material slowdown:
In any case, an orderly Brexit is still less free trade in the short-term and will not mark a recovery for the UK economy. On the monetary side, BOE will not move till Q320. Good luck to those in UK markets, jump into the comments with your ideas and charts to further the discussions!
All the best.
Comment
Elections are necessary to reset the Parliamentary board if the vote is turned down with DUP now on the other side... Comment
We will have more details here around 3:30PM (London time)Comment
Brexit deal passed by HoC ... Brexit finally confirmed
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