GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up
Updated
Despite a slight dip on Friday, the GBPUSD charts remain poised for potential new highs. The aftermath of the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot faced resistance from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, moderating rate cut expectations and emphasizing the central bank's commitment to tackling inflation.
In this dynamic landscape, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained unchanged rates but conveyed distinct messages. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey struck a hawkish tone, highlighting that there's "still some way to go" in their inflation battle. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at sufficiently restrictive monetary policy, introducing discussions about rate cuts, a notion later tempered by New York Fed President John Williams, deeming March rate cut talks as "premature."
On the UK front, December witnessed an overall improvement in business activity, barring manufacturing, which lingered in recessionary territory since July 2022.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, the UK's economic docket will unveil crucial inflation figures and retail sales. Simultaneously, across the pond, the week kicks off with housing data and consumer confidence until Wednesday, followed by the final GDP print, unemployment claims, Durable Goods Orders, and consumer sentiment from Thursday onwards.
Given these developments, how should we approach the week ahead from a technical standpoint?
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.26000 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.27350 and $1.26000 where a consolidation could happen before the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
In this dynamic landscape, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained unchanged rates but conveyed distinct messages. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey struck a hawkish tone, highlighting that there's "still some way to go" in their inflation battle. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at sufficiently restrictive monetary policy, introducing discussions about rate cuts, a notion later tempered by New York Fed President John Williams, deeming March rate cut talks as "premature."
On the UK front, December witnessed an overall improvement in business activity, barring manufacturing, which lingered in recessionary territory since July 2022.
As we gear up for the upcoming week, the UK's economic docket will unveil crucial inflation figures and retail sales. Simultaneously, across the pond, the week kicks off with housing data and consumer confidence until Wednesday, followed by the final GDP print, unemployment claims, Durable Goods Orders, and consumer sentiment from Thursday onwards.
Given these developments, how should we approach the week ahead from a technical standpoint?
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.26000 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!
The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from both the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.
In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.
We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.27350 and $1.26000 where a consolidation could happen before the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.
Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!
Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.
Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.
Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
Note
The Pound Sterling experienced a surge in dip-buying around the 1.26550 area, establishing a newfound support during the Asian session. Temporarily halting the retracement slide from the 1.2800 zone, the current upswing in the pair is underpinned by the Bank of England's steadfast commitment to a prolonged restrictive stance, aiming to curtail inflation. This bullish momentum finds additional support in the positive signals from the UK PMIs released on Friday, indicating a late-year surge in growth and steering the economy away from recession in Q4. The GBPUSD pair, propelled by this momentum and a subdued US Dollar, benefits from a favorable tailwind.As we navigate the current trading day, we will rely on the newly identified chart patterns to guide our trading decisions.
Good Morning.
Trade active
The sell position is closed at break-even as the Pound Sterling appears to have ended its two-day losing streak during the Asian session. The pair's rebound gains traction courtesy of a weaker US Dollar and diminished US Treasury bond yields. The market participants now look forward to tomorrow's release of UK inflation data for cues in this market environment.Adding depth to the Pound's recovery, BoE policymaker Ben Broadbent emphasized yesterday that the monetary policy committee remains vigilant, requiring clear and sustained signs of declining inflation before confidently identifying a downward trend. This aligns with the BoE Governor's commitment to instilling hope in the Pound Sterling.
Today's trading activities will be guided by the identified levels on the chart.
Good Morning.
Trade active
#GBPUSDUPDATE
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UPDATEApproximately 100 pips from 3 buy positions; protect positions as we look out for new trading opportunities.
Trade closed manually
All long positions have been closed with a minimum gain of 80 pips due to the Pound Sterling facing bearish pressure following the release of UK data indicating a decrease in annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, from 4.6% to 3.9% in November. We will now exercise patience and observe the market's reaction around the 1.26650 zone, as it will dictate our next steps. Join us in our upcoming live session where we will provide a detailed analysis of the current market structure for better understanding.Good Morning
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Following our discussion during today's live session; here is a simple trading setup identified on the 15 min timeframe to guide our decisions going forward.Trade active
#GBPUSDUPDATE
Just as discussed during our live session this morning; the bullish outlook remains intact.
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The market's bullish outlook remains intact as price action stabilizes below 1.2650, following a significant decline triggered by soft UK inflation data. The Pound Sterling faced challenges due to subdued inflation in the United Kingdom, while the US Dollar saw gains on improved economic data from the United States.The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) eased to 3.9% from the previous 4.6%, falling short of the expected 4.4% in November. It's important to note that several Fed officials have emphasized a cautious approach and discouraged premature speculations on policy rate cuts. The interplay between interest rates, central bank sentiment, and market expectations continues to influence the movements of the US Dollar.
Market participants are likely awaiting key economic releases today for further insights into the US economy, including US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Despite the current bullish outlook, it's important to keep our options open, as selling pressure could emerge upon the breakdown or retest of the 1.26000 zone.
Good Morning
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UPDATEThe US GDP data comes in below expectation at 4.9% to triggere a positive traction in favour of the Pound Sterling.
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The Pound Sterling remains resilient, gaining momentum despite disappointing UK Q3 final GDP, contracting by 0.1%. On a positive note, November's UK Retail Sales surged 1.3% MoM, signaling strength in consumer spending. Amidst mixed data, GBPUSD maintains a bullish stance. Given this, it is advisable to protect all positions and remain vigilant for new trading opportunities, especially as market participants await the core PCE data from the US for further guidance.
Good Morning
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#GBPUSDUPDATE
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