GBPUSD - Green April upon Us (Seasonality) ?
Updated
Historical data suggests GBPUSD has certain seasonal tendencies within it's calendar year, April being the best in terms of its strength and August being the weakest.
Current economic situations and amidst these SVB collapse, rising inflation and expected recession suggests difficult days ahead for DXY. When we look at the DXY it loosing strength which also suggests GBPUSD has the potential to grow in April. As per analysis suggests
Looking at last 20 years data, 85% of the time April had green monthly closings with last ten years average returns in April were 0.42%. Mostly this rally starts from second half of march and if we look at the current price action, we have many bullish signs which suggest this rally has already begun. Break out from the falling wedge, higher highs and higher lows, ABCD pattern (if it breaks 1.22040). Using the confluence of wedge breakout and ABCD pattern, our projection for first profit level is 1.2400 in coming week. And if trend continues (suggested by seasonal behaviour) and it breaks out of resistance zone, we could use the last 10 years average return as the projection for next target (0.42%) which would be around 1.2500 (near 1.618 fib level as well).
Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Past performance does not diminish the risk expectancy of any strategy. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only, so do proper risk management if you plan to use this information
Current economic situations and amidst these SVB collapse, rising inflation and expected recession suggests difficult days ahead for DXY. When we look at the DXY it loosing strength which also suggests GBPUSD has the potential to grow in April. As per analysis suggests
Looking at last 20 years data, 85% of the time April had green monthly closings with last ten years average returns in April were 0.42%. Mostly this rally starts from second half of march and if we look at the current price action, we have many bullish signs which suggest this rally has already begun. Break out from the falling wedge, higher highs and higher lows, ABCD pattern (if it breaks 1.22040). Using the confluence of wedge breakout and ABCD pattern, our projection for first profit level is 1.2400 in coming week. And if trend continues (suggested by seasonal behaviour) and it breaks out of resistance zone, we could use the last 10 years average return as the projection for next target (0.42%) which would be around 1.2500 (near 1.618 fib level as well).
Disclaimer: Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Past performance does not diminish the risk expectancy of any strategy. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only, so do proper risk management if you plan to use this information
Note
Our target (1.2400) for end of march has been achieved as per analysis. We will now wait for next target for the April which is 1.25
Disclaimer
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