GBPUSD: UPDATES LEVELS
Updated
Our previous Analysis:
Thank you for your support and trade with care!
Thank you for your support and trade with care!
Note
Sterling IS in focus with Q3 GDP numbers scheduled for release and the economists are looking for a dramatic slowdown in growth courtesy of Brexit but retail sales have been strong so growth may not slow as much as they fear and if they beat expectations, we could see a sharp rise in GBP/USD. let' see!Note
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The most important aspect for gbpusd, is not the FOMC but the BoE announcement that will be released tomorrow, and the press conference of Carney, will reveal any doubt on the next movement of the pound in the medium-term. Technically speaking, it is important for us to have a good margin to manage the position (if there will be no sell-off this evening :))Thank you for your support and trade with care!!
Note
The British High Court ruled that the government's plan for Brexit needs Parliamentary approval. Investors cheered their decision by taking sterling sharply higher as they know it will now take longer for the government to invoke Article 50. More importantly, this means the eventual terms of exit should be milder as most members of Parliament did not support the decision to leave the European Union which means we are looking at a soft and not hard Brexit. Acting fast, Prime Minister May has already appealed the ruling and the Supreme Court will hear the case on December 7th. We doubt that they will overrule the High Court's decision because getting the entire government involved in this process is extremely important due to the potential magnitude of the consequences for the U.K. economy and how the country operates as a whole. Considering that a large part of sterling's weakness was driven by Brexit fears, a strong short squeeze is more than justified. This is especially true given the less hawkish comments from Bank of England Governor Carney. The central bank is no longer looking to lower interest rates this year and in Carney's words the "BoE has neutral bias on policy going forward." This is largely due to the improvements in the economy and rising price pressures.Note
Ever since Donald Trump's surprising win on Tuesday, cable has shown relative strength holding up well against the buck while euro lost four big figures since Tuesday's highs. The flow into cable can be attributed to the stall of progress on Brexit as the case weaves its way through UK courts but also the election of Mr. Trump. One of the seminal threats against the UK economy as a result of Brexit was the promise by President Obama not to negotiate a bi-lateral trade deal. That policy will change completely under President Trump. Not only that but Mr. Trump is very likely to force the EU to negotiate with UK on PM May's terms or threaten a cooling of trade ties between EU and US. In short having Mr. Trump as President may have ameliorated some of the worst economic aspects of Brexit and the market is reacting to this development by relentlessly bidding cable.
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