Strong buying opportunity is imminent! Following through on my last idea, now is the time to execute a long strategy. Gold has been range bound for weeks, but it is going to end during the May 1-2 FOMC meeting.
Prices will either challenge $1,370 highs OR set new a new ICL at the December low of $1,242. Either way, there is money to be made! We are now approaching a noisy support zone with a lot of strong resistance points from which to bounce so my money will be on a long position, but price action could dictate otherwise.
$1,314 - * support level that probably won't hold
$1,306 - ** support level that is likely to hold
$1,294 - *** support level that is highly unlikely to be broken
This is the final C of an ABC correction wave and the USD is getting stronger (both putting short term downward pressure on gold prices). Collision of technical indicators also set a strong support level between $1,306 and $1,319
RSI - approaching oversold - solid buying opportunity ahead
100 MA - $1,320
200 MA - $1,303
Cycles - this cycle is very stretched - ranges are starting to expand
Downward channel - approaching the lower limits of the channel
Note how the line in the sand at $1,306 lines up nicely with the Elliot wave pattern and the FOMC.
Entry: any price action bullish signal between $1,318 and $1,306
Stop: $1,305
Target 1: $1,350
Target 2: $1,370+
If stop hit, I will be watching the $1,295 level, if that is broken all bets are off and a short position at $1,290 would yield a good return. I do not think this is a likely scenario, but it is the scenario being predicted by Chartwatchers (great analyst by the way) and we must always be open to all possibilities.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/E9yRC4zz-GOLD-Silence-of-the-bulls/
Finally, a close look at the 4H chart shows us that the price decline is starting to decelerate and we did not see any gap lower despite the US stock markets gaping higher. This is affirmation that prices are starting to bottom.
Prices will either challenge $1,370 highs OR set new a new ICL at the December low of $1,242. Either way, there is money to be made! We are now approaching a noisy support zone with a lot of strong resistance points from which to bounce so my money will be on a long position, but price action could dictate otherwise.
$1,314 - * support level that probably won't hold
$1,306 - ** support level that is likely to hold
$1,294 - *** support level that is highly unlikely to be broken
This is the final C of an ABC correction wave and the USD is getting stronger (both putting short term downward pressure on gold prices). Collision of technical indicators also set a strong support level between $1,306 and $1,319
RSI - approaching oversold - solid buying opportunity ahead
100 MA - $1,320
200 MA - $1,303
Cycles - this cycle is very stretched - ranges are starting to expand
Downward channel - approaching the lower limits of the channel
Note how the line in the sand at $1,306 lines up nicely with the Elliot wave pattern and the FOMC.
Entry: any price action bullish signal between $1,318 and $1,306
Stop: $1,305
Target 1: $1,350
Target 2: $1,370+
If stop hit, I will be watching the $1,295 level, if that is broken all bets are off and a short position at $1,290 would yield a good return. I do not think this is a likely scenario, but it is the scenario being predicted by Chartwatchers (great analyst by the way) and we must always be open to all possibilities.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/E9yRC4zz-GOLD-Silence-of-the-bulls/
Finally, a close look at the 4H chart shows us that the price decline is starting to decelerate and we did not see any gap lower despite the US stock markets gaping higher. This is affirmation that prices are starting to bottom.
Note
We may not get near $1,306. There were early signs of bottoming price action overnight. A lower low on the hourly failed and reversed back above the prior low. No long entry yet but getting closer.Note
No long entry yet, don’t be fooled by the small pop on the hourly. The final fall is yet to come. This pop is probably short positions liquidating before the weekend. Monday should be interesting.Note
All short targets have now been hit ahead of the FOMC. Ready for launch!Note
Weak bullish pinbar on the daily but the day isn’t over yet. I’d rather see a full retrace for a strong pinbar failing that, I’m waiting for the impact of the FOMC tomorrow.Note
Approaching $1,306 where there is solid support. I will not buy @ $1,306 as I suspect its heading to $1,295. If $1,295 is broken this idea is invalid and the bears are in control. Waiting for entry on pullback AFTER reversal. Note
Long target hit, need to see a reversal signal now before entering long trade. Price could fall another $12 before reversing.Trade active
The bottom is in. Gravestone doji yesterday during a downtrend. Rare but reversal signal. I expect an inside day followed by a strong breakout. Breaking $1,315 is confirmation, breaking $1,320 puts bulls in charge.Long $1,310
Target $1,360
Note
Long into the weekend. Stocks closed stronger AND gold closing up. Some folks were calling for $1,260 gold...the behaviour does fit that conclusion. My money is on the bottom being in at $1,306 especially with today’s low not even piercing $1,308. Note
Downtrend channel definitely broken, upwards move in process along trend line, despite the EUR/USD dropping (bearish for gold) - this leaves the possibility of a price explosion if USD EUR/USD reverses. 4 HR chart below does not appear to be a bearish rising wedge.Trade closed: stop reached
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.