As of April 14, 2025, gold has surged to record highs near $3,265, but the technical picture suggests trend exhaustion. Price action resembles a potential expanding triangle top, with bearish divergence on RSI and momentum, declining volume on rallies, and seasonal cycles hinting at weakness into May–June. This may not be a fresh impulse but rather a volatile topping formation. If the triangle pattern holds, we could see a breakdown toward the $2,950–$2,800 zone before another base forms. Short-term traders should be cautious and consider scaling into shorts only on failed bounces near resistance. Longs may want to wait until strong support zones around $2,750–$2,850 show signs of stabilization. Risk/reward now favors defense over chase.
Bearish Divergence Across the Board:
Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence:
Trade Strategy Ideas:
Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks)
Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding)
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B)
Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%)
Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone)
Entry Plan (Short Bias):
Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent.
Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption)
Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950
Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone
Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early.
Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months)
Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long
Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025
Buy Zone (if correction unfolds):
Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone)
Entry Strategy:
Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone.
Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support.
Stop Loss: Below $2,700
Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200
Scale Out Strategy:
Scale in between $2,800–$2,750
Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs
Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months)
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction)
Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter.
Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling.
Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential:
Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025.
Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher.
Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns.
📌 DYOR. Not financial advice.
#Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup
Bearish Divergence Across the Board:
- RSI & Momentum indicators failed to confirm new highs
- Volume spiked on selloffs, not on breakouts
- Possible expanding triangle top forming (ABCDE pattern), often a major topping structure
Cycle & Fibonacci Confluence:
- Seasonal weakness into May–June aligns with cycle top
- Key retracement targets: $3,045 → $2,950 → $2,870 → $2,800
- Support zone to watch: $2,750–$2,850
Trade Strategy Ideas:
Short-Term Plan (1–3 Weeks)
Bias: Bearish or Neutral
Pattern: Expanding Triangle (C Wave Possibly Unfolding)
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,265 (recent high), $3,200 (round-number, prior Wave B)
Initial Downside Targets: $3,045 (23.6% Fib), $2,950 (38.2%)
Stretch Target: $2,870–$2,800 (50–61.8% Fib, Cycle Support Zone)
Entry Plan (Short Bias):
Consider short positions on weak bounce rejections near $3,200–$3,240 if momentum remains divergent.
Watch for breakdowns under $3,100 with high volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $3,275 (new highs invalidate C wave assumption)
Scale Out: Partial profits at $3,045, more at $2,950
Final Target: $2,870–$2,800 zone
Re-evaluate: If strong reversal candles or bullish volume return before $2,950, exit early.
Medium-Term Plan (1–2 Months)
Bias: Wait for correction to finish before new long
Key Timing: Cycle projection into late May–June 2025
Buy Zone (if correction unfolds):
Primary: $2,750–$2,850 (50–61.8% retracement & prior breakout zone)
Entry Strategy:
Wait for a weekly bullish reversal candle or a clear RSI bottoming with momentum confirmation in the $2,750–$2,850 zone.
Prefer entries during a low-volatility retest or after a capitulation flush into major support.
Stop Loss: Below $2,700
Initial Targets for Bounce: $3,045 → $3,200
Scale Out Strategy:
Scale in between $2,800–$2,750
Begin scaling out above $3,045 and $3,150 if bounce occurs
Long-Term Plan (3–6+ Months)
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish (contingent on structure post-correction)
Trend Review: If correction resolves and price bases around $2,800, long-term bulls may re-enter.
Invalidation of Bullish Thesis: A sustained break below $2,700 with heavy volume and commercial selling.
Next Major Bullish Cycle Potential:
Wave structure reset scenario: After expanding triangle resolution and larger ABC correction, new 5-wave impulse could begin in late Q2 2025.
Macro-Level Support: If global macro uncertainty rises again, gold could re-target $3,300 and higher.
Action: Remain flat until a confirmed low forms. Position building to be considered once weekly momentum resets and smart money returns.
📌 DYOR. Not financial advice.
#Gold #GC_F #Futures #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #Seasonality #Momentum #RSI #ShortSetup
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.