When will Gold shine again?
Updated
Currently Gold is in a pretty bad spot right now despite the fact that it seems it wants to go up. It is below all key moving averages, has broken key support levels and there is a double/triple/quadruple bottom (depends on how you see it) that wants to get broken.
Now this idea kinda contradicts my previous idea because if bonds go up, most likely Gold will go up along with them. Essentially real rates could fall, but by how much? If I am thinking bonds will go up (yields down) and inflation stays the same then real yields will go down, so gold will go up. But will inflation stay the same? Also the market is looking forward and many of these things have already been taken into account. There are many forces into play here and I don't think everyone understands all of them. Yes the relationship with real yields does matter, but what if the Crypto market and Stocks go so high that people keep selling safe stuff to get into the riskier stuff? What good is gold when it is underperforming everything?
There is a solid chance this inflationary/reflationary wave will flop pretty quickly and that's why bonds could go up. To me it seems like it will be more of technical bounce as they are oversold, not that there is anything scary going on. So gold could get up to 1820-1860 and then go down again. To me there is a decent chance that long term Gold could get to the 1350$ area. How or why will it get there I don't know, however my TA says it is possible until we get a close above 1860.
Now this idea kinda contradicts my previous idea because if bonds go up, most likely Gold will go up along with them. Essentially real rates could fall, but by how much? If I am thinking bonds will go up (yields down) and inflation stays the same then real yields will go down, so gold will go up. But will inflation stay the same? Also the market is looking forward and many of these things have already been taken into account. There are many forces into play here and I don't think everyone understands all of them. Yes the relationship with real yields does matter, but what if the Crypto market and Stocks go so high that people keep selling safe stuff to get into the riskier stuff? What good is gold when it is underperforming everything?
There is a solid chance this inflationary/reflationary wave will flop pretty quickly and that's why bonds could go up. To me it seems like it will be more of technical bounce as they are oversold, not that there is anything scary going on. So gold could get up to 1820-1860 and then go down again. To me there is a decent chance that long term Gold could get to the 1350$ area. How or why will it get there I don't know, however my TA says it is possible until we get a close above 1860.
Order cancelled
So far playing as expected and it could keep dropping, especially if bonds keep going lower too. However because I have an idea on bonds with the exact opposite view I cancel both as it is pointless. I lean more on this being successful, but nothing special and why would I care about gold or bonds when the money is elsewhere?
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