**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025
**Status:** Parabolic Phase | Euphoria Peaking | Structure Fragile
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## 🧠 Thesis
Gold has shifted from trending to **momentum-driven price action**. We're now in the parabolic stage of the breakout — where belief is at its highest, structure is at its weakest, and volatility becomes the release valve.
This is no longer a trend-following environment. It’s a **sentiment-pressure zone** where intraday risk expands sharply.
---
## 🔍 Key Signals
- Parabolic curve formation
- COT shows aggressive commercial selling
- Open interest is peaking with sentiment extreme
- Weak closes despite strong highs = possible exhaustion
- Structure thin above breakout zone = high whipsaw risk
---
## ⚠️ What to Expect
- Intraday **fakeouts and rejection candles**
- **Range expansion** in both directions
- Emotional breakout chasing followed by sharp reversals
- Market-wide volatility spillover if rejection confirms
---
## 🛠️ Strategy Guidance
- Avoid breakout chasing — look for **confirmation first**
- Fade emotional spikes only after rejection candles
- Focus on **tight invalidation and reduced size**
- If it holds and extends, trail stops closely — **don’t get greedy**
---
> “When price goes vertical, risk doesn’t rise gradually. It explodes.”
---
## ✅ Summary
Gold is in its most unstable phase — euphoria is priced in.
Whether this is continuation or climax, **volatility is guaranteed.**
Trade with precision, or not at all.
**Status:** Parabolic Phase | Euphoria Peaking | Structure Fragile
---
## 🧠 Thesis
Gold has shifted from trending to **momentum-driven price action**. We're now in the parabolic stage of the breakout — where belief is at its highest, structure is at its weakest, and volatility becomes the release valve.
This is no longer a trend-following environment. It’s a **sentiment-pressure zone** where intraday risk expands sharply.
---
## 🔍 Key Signals
- Parabolic curve formation
- COT shows aggressive commercial selling
- Open interest is peaking with sentiment extreme
- Weak closes despite strong highs = possible exhaustion
- Structure thin above breakout zone = high whipsaw risk
---
## ⚠️ What to Expect
- Intraday **fakeouts and rejection candles**
- **Range expansion** in both directions
- Emotional breakout chasing followed by sharp reversals
- Market-wide volatility spillover if rejection confirms
---
## 🛠️ Strategy Guidance
- Avoid breakout chasing — look for **confirmation first**
- Fade emotional spikes only after rejection candles
- Focus on **tight invalidation and reduced size**
- If it holds and extends, trail stops closely — **don’t get greedy**
---
> “When price goes vertical, risk doesn’t rise gradually. It explodes.”
---
## ✅ Summary
Gold is in its most unstable phase — euphoria is priced in.
Whether this is continuation or climax, **volatility is guaranteed.**
Trade with precision, or not at all.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.