The Gold Odyssey - Here we go again!
Someone mentioned to me that Gold is an asset that never loses money. I took the effort to show previously that Gold can very well do a 20% drop over a slow bleed (months) before it travels back up months later too. I also warned that Gold appears not to be able to keep properly and well above 2000-2080. Since 2020 (the Gold Odyssey series started in 2019), there is a multiyear consolidation range between 1650 to 2050, roughly.
Having pointed all that out, it appears that Gold had given up the cling to 2000. Here is why:
1. There are lower lows and lower highs (clearer in Daily chart);
2. a clear breakdown of small consolidation range at 1960 support;
3. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv have crossed under their lagging signal lines; and
4. The TDST (Green dotted line) was broken out of and with long upper tailed candlesticks reversed back to break down of that TDST. When prices are above, the primary trend is bullish. Now it reverted back to a bearish primary trend. (This is part of TD Sequential rules).
Given the above, we can project that the most likely trajectory in the following months is down to 1680 (4Q2023), in a repeated pattern, for the third time, since 2020. There should be a stalling consolidation about 1800 too, so expect that.
Now, for this to happen, a few fundamental things need to align...
a. the USD should be rallying hard upwards;
b. the interest rates should be rising too;
c. inflation moderates; and
d. Possibly in alignment, can expect the equity markets to be bearish.
Heads up and take care!
ps. some dates projecting forward are marked. :)
Having pointed all that out, it appears that Gold had given up the cling to 2000. Here is why:
1. There are lower lows and lower highs (clearer in Daily chart);
2. a clear breakdown of small consolidation range at 1960 support;
3. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv have crossed under their lagging signal lines; and
4. The TDST (Green dotted line) was broken out of and with long upper tailed candlesticks reversed back to break down of that TDST. When prices are above, the primary trend is bullish. Now it reverted back to a bearish primary trend. (This is part of TD Sequential rules).
Given the above, we can project that the most likely trajectory in the following months is down to 1680 (4Q2023), in a repeated pattern, for the third time, since 2020. There should be a stalling consolidation about 1800 too, so expect that.
Now, for this to happen, a few fundamental things need to align...
a. the USD should be rallying hard upwards;
b. the interest rates should be rising too;
c. inflation moderates; and
d. Possibly in alignment, can expect the equity markets to be bearish.
Heads up and take care!
ps. some dates projecting forward are marked. :)
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