General Motors GM DAILY EXPLOSION PATTERN
I can't add text to the chart at the moment - but I didn't want to miss posting this idea.
It looks like GM just can't rally despite the surge back up in Ford (F). GM is struggling with the recall news and liability and lack of confidence issues that could arise from not changing out a cheap part.
The 3 green lines mark the level where GM said they would buy back shares. So, I give that the bottom of the range. The upside is perhaps a retest of the peak there at $40. You can see the massive distribution zone marked in red that could easily be the liquidation by long term holders. For now, we have to assume that is what has happened, especially because the price is below that zone (the volume weighted average price of that time zone).
I think it is clear that GM wont be at this price in the next 6 months. It will be either 15% higher or 15% lower, as I see it. Maybe that is a bold prediction but this chart pattern together with the news flow tells me this is what to expect.
If you go out to June (3 months) and buy both the 34 strike puts and calls, you will pay 3.72, which means the market is expecting the price of GM to be +/- 3.72 from 34 by the 3rd Friday in June. 30.28-37.72 is quite a wide range.
I think it makes sense to own both sides for a month and see what happens. If one side makes a big move, we can take a stock position to offset (buy on a dip) or just leg out of one side of the trade.
Tim 11:57AM EST 4/2/2014 GM 34.54 last
It looks like GM just can't rally despite the surge back up in Ford (F). GM is struggling with the recall news and liability and lack of confidence issues that could arise from not changing out a cheap part.
The 3 green lines mark the level where GM said they would buy back shares. So, I give that the bottom of the range. The upside is perhaps a retest of the peak there at $40. You can see the massive distribution zone marked in red that could easily be the liquidation by long term holders. For now, we have to assume that is what has happened, especially because the price is below that zone (the volume weighted average price of that time zone).
I think it is clear that GM wont be at this price in the next 6 months. It will be either 15% higher or 15% lower, as I see it. Maybe that is a bold prediction but this chart pattern together with the news flow tells me this is what to expect.
If you go out to June (3 months) and buy both the 34 strike puts and calls, you will pay 3.72, which means the market is expecting the price of GM to be +/- 3.72 from 34 by the 3rd Friday in June. 30.28-37.72 is quite a wide range.
I think it makes sense to own both sides for a month and see what happens. If one side makes a big move, we can take a stock position to offset (buy on a dip) or just leg out of one side of the trade.
Tim 11:57AM EST 4/2/2014 GM 34.54 last
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