Uncontrollable Inflation?
Updated
Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind.
This chart clears the picture.
On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO
On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX
modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart.
This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag.
This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds.
Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak.
Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures.
Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart.
He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis.
Now I will explain how and why these charts work.
On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value.
M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing.
On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart.
On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized.
Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation.
Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope.
PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore.
PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart.
PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
This chart clears the picture.
On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO
On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX
modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart.
This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag.
This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds.
Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak.
Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures.
Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart.
He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis.
Now I will explain how and why these charts work.
On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value.
M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing.
On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart.
On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized.
Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation.
Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope.
PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore.
PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart.
PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
Note
PS5. With me and the 3 people who liked this idea (I thank them) we could easily play a game of poker. We would certainly be making more "wealth" that way, than by buying options/derivatives in a market that is about to collapse.PS6. For the 3 of you, I would like to explain a little further the PS3 charts, and what conclusions we can get. First of all, this chart calculates the following:
How much more "valuable" equities get compared to currency.
In a sense, it shows that the economy specifically after 1980 got all-in-equities and all-out-bonds. Everyone believed equities have worth, and that bonds don't.
This relationship was restricted inside the four rays I drew. "My-No1-favorite-trendline" is the upper ceiling of the relationship after 1980. It describes that the balance between lowering yields, bubbling equities and QE has a ceiling. And one ceiling is this trendline. "My-No2-favorite-trendline" is basically the support. In 2021 we were in a post-pandemic mode, when everyone wanted more. But there was no more. So the chart made a fakeout, and now we are below all support. This means in the years to come, bonds will take the place of equities. Bonds may not completely replace equities, but they come in a new fashion.
PS7. Before anyone says that I cry because I didn't get many likes, I have an answer. Two of my ideas got in editor's picks with many likes. So I have lived through the "happiness" of being popular. I have realized that my favorite ideas (this is my all-time favorite believe it or not) and the most head-scratching ideas are not popular. It is either because many don't find them interesting, or because for some "weird" reason, my ideas don't show up in searches. At any rate, I don't really care what happens, and I don't want to know.
PS8. I am tired of reading online on these desperate advice of going rich in stock market by trading options. On how with trading fake stuff, you can make more fake stuff. And magically all your problems will get solved. How you can work 1h per day, and have the relationship of your dreams, and the money of your dreams. Do note that even if you get rich accumulating dollars, you are still on the loser's side. The winners are the kings of the world, the richest men who want more riches, and the daily human completely dependent on the united rulers of the world.
PS9. Let's get my account banned!
PS10. No more PS.
Note
PS11. I lied, here is one more. All of this shouldn't discourage you from finding the way to "break the system". I am obsessed in finding the real nature behind the fog, the reality they desperately try to hide. From an investment point of view, the PPIACO*GOLD chart means the following:The numerator means the investments that produce resources.
The denominator on the one chart is the value of equities. On the other chart is the value of money printed.
This ratio may be telling us that the real gainers are the commodity producers. The wealth gained by them is bull-flagging compared to everyone else. In a sense, massive wealth transfer/accumulation to the biggest (precious) resources producers of the world. Oil production, Silicone, Lithium, Farmland.
PS12. In charts we should always multiply things together, and rarely add. Multiplication in log-charts is addition. So GOLD*PPIACO is just "adding" them.
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I hope you get it. This bull-flag shows us why we are at war on resources.Note
Not so crazy after all...Thank you PIIBOINS !
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The commodity bull-flag can indeed break out until 2025Link to the article:
endtimeheadlines.org/2023/01/rumors-of-war-air-force-general-predicts-america-will-be-at-war-with-china-by-2025/
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Question: Will the biggest wealth-transfer event we've lived through be blamed on war? Or is war going to be the catalyst for such an event to occur? Which one is the cause and which one the effect?Which came first: The chicken or the egg?
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Maybe the bubble hasn't filled... yet. Pattern taken from The Great Depression.Let The Roaring 20's begin!
-Elon Musk (pseudo-prophet)
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Is this a valid flag? Does it have any meaning?For some reason, we cannot perform calculations on USOIL before 1983. PPIACO can be considered a USOIL replacement (since oil is a main ingredient for production cost increase)
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Could it be that, maybe, just maybe that the inflation chart can be analyzed like everything else?
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