# 🟡 XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) - Market Outlook
**Date:** July 19, 2025
**Instrument:** CFD on Spot Gold
**Symbol:** XAU/USD
**Timeframe:** Intraday & Swing Focus
---
## 📊 Technical Analysis
### 🔹 Current Price Action:
- **Price:** ~$3,351 per ounce
- **Bias:** Bullish continuation with potential retracement
### 🔸 Key Levels:
| Level | Type | Description |
|--------------|--------------|-----------------------------------|
| 3,435 - 3,442| Resistance | Multi-day top + Fib extension |
| 3,400 | Pivot | Round number + psychological zone |
| 3,384 | Support 1 | Last pullback low |
| 3,368 | Support 2 | MA confluence zone |
| 3,345 - 3,350| Strong base | Weekly structural support |
### 📈 Structure & Pattern:
- Series of **higher highs and higher lows**
- Sharp **rally during NY session**, consolidation during Asia/London
- Strong **liquidity sweep** under 3,384 followed by impulsive recovery
### 📍 Bias:
> **Bullish** above 3,384
> Potential short-term pullback toward 3,384 – 3,368 = buying opportunity
> Watch for breakout and hold above 3,435 for extension toward 3,470+
---
## 🌐 Fundamental Analysis
### 📰 Macro Drivers:
| Factor | Impact on Gold | Notes |
|-----------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------|
| **US Dollar (DXY)** | ⬇️ Bullish for Gold | DXY rejected 104.50; retracing |
| **Bond Yields** | ⬇️ Bullish | US 10Y below 4.15%; easing pressure |
| **Fed Policy (FOMC)** | 📉 Bullish | Market pricing 65% chance of rate cut by Sep |
| **Geopolitical Risks** | 🆙 Bullish | Middle East tension + Russian escalation |
| **Gold ETF Demand** | ⬆️ Bullish | Net inflows continue (strong hedge appetite) |
### 🛑 Risks to Bullish View:
- Sudden USD strength recovery
- Fed speakers turning hawkish unexpectedly
- Aggressive short-term profit-taking near ATH
---
## 🎯 Summary Outlook:
> Gold remains in a **strong uptrend** with healthy corrections.
> As long as price holds above **3,384**, dips are buyable.
> Targeting 3,442+ short term and 3,470-3,500 for swing traders.
---
## 🧭 Strategy Suggestion:
- ✅ **Buy on dip** toward 3,384–3,368 zone
- ❌ Avoid chasing breakouts unless confirmed on NY open
- 🔁 Watch for liquidity traps and fakeouts under 3,384
---
⏱️ *Updated by: Persiaux King 👑*
*Trade the plan, trust the flow 💛*
**Date:** July 19, 2025
**Instrument:** CFD on Spot Gold
**Symbol:** XAU/USD
**Timeframe:** Intraday & Swing Focus
---
## 📊 Technical Analysis
### 🔹 Current Price Action:
- **Price:** ~$3,351 per ounce
- **Bias:** Bullish continuation with potential retracement
### 🔸 Key Levels:
| Level | Type | Description |
|--------------|--------------|-----------------------------------|
| 3,435 - 3,442| Resistance | Multi-day top + Fib extension |
| 3,400 | Pivot | Round number + psychological zone |
| 3,384 | Support 1 | Last pullback low |
| 3,368 | Support 2 | MA confluence zone |
| 3,345 - 3,350| Strong base | Weekly structural support |
### 📈 Structure & Pattern:
- Series of **higher highs and higher lows**
- Sharp **rally during NY session**, consolidation during Asia/London
- Strong **liquidity sweep** under 3,384 followed by impulsive recovery
### 📍 Bias:
> **Bullish** above 3,384
> Potential short-term pullback toward 3,384 – 3,368 = buying opportunity
> Watch for breakout and hold above 3,435 for extension toward 3,470+
---
## 🌐 Fundamental Analysis
### 📰 Macro Drivers:
| Factor | Impact on Gold | Notes |
|-----------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------|
| **US Dollar (DXY)** | ⬇️ Bullish for Gold | DXY rejected 104.50; retracing |
| **Bond Yields** | ⬇️ Bullish | US 10Y below 4.15%; easing pressure |
| **Fed Policy (FOMC)** | 📉 Bullish | Market pricing 65% chance of rate cut by Sep |
| **Geopolitical Risks** | 🆙 Bullish | Middle East tension + Russian escalation |
| **Gold ETF Demand** | ⬆️ Bullish | Net inflows continue (strong hedge appetite) |
### 🛑 Risks to Bullish View:
- Sudden USD strength recovery
- Fed speakers turning hawkish unexpectedly
- Aggressive short-term profit-taking near ATH
---
## 🎯 Summary Outlook:
> Gold remains in a **strong uptrend** with healthy corrections.
> As long as price holds above **3,384**, dips are buyable.
> Targeting 3,442+ short term and 3,470-3,500 for swing traders.
---
## 🧭 Strategy Suggestion:
- ✅ **Buy on dip** toward 3,384–3,368 zone
- ❌ Avoid chasing breakouts unless confirmed on NY open
- 🔁 Watch for liquidity traps and fakeouts under 3,384
---
⏱️ *Updated by: Persiaux King 👑*
*Trade the plan, trust the flow 💛*
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.