GOLD 29/6/2023
Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year.
This week, the market is waiting for the most important and preferred inflation indicator, the PCE index.
I. SPDR Fund: Bought 1.15 trillion on June 28th.
II. Macroeconomic and Intermarket News:
According to CME, on June 27th, 25.6% predict no change in interest rates and 74.4% predict a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 29th, the predictions are 20.6% for no change and 79.4% for a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
Bond Market: Money flow indicates optimism. Junk bonds have increased significantly, while long-term government bonds have slightly risen in interest rates.
Equity Market: Big tech companies are maintaining momentum in the market. The SPX and DJ indices have seen slight decreases, while NASDAQ and RUSELL have increased.
Government Bond Yields: The 2-year yield has decreased significantly, and the 10-year yield has also decreased. The yield curve has improved, but the slope is steep.
ECB's President Lagarde: Exchange rates will be maintained at a high level for as long as necessary. The ECB is committed to achieving the inflation target.
BoE's Dhingra: Wages are responding to inflation with a lag. There are prospects for a significant decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI).
ECB's De Guindos: The interest rate hike in July has been decided, and the decision for September will depend on the data.
ECB's Vujcic: There is no reason to say what we will do in September. There is a good chance for an interest rate hike in September, but persistent inflation may lead to no pause in September.
Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance, stated that authorities will intervene if the foreign exchange market becomes uncontrollable. This statement caused the USD/JPY to initially drop below 144 but stabilized later on.
ECB's Lagarde: If the baseline holds firm, we may increase rates in July. Currently, I'm not considering a pause.
FED's Powell: We believe there will be more constraints due to labor market pressures. Most policymakers expect two more interest rate hikes this year. We haven't made a decision on raising rates in the next meeting. We won't miss an opportunity to act in subsequent meetings. There is no reason to change the pace of balance sheet adjustment right now. I'm not forecasting that we'll get back to 2% inflation this year or next year; I see us making progress.
BoE Bailey: The data shows a clear presence of inflation. We will do what is necessary. It would be a bad outcome if we don't bring inflation back to target.
BOJ Governor: The core inflation is still below 2%. We are closely monitoring the JPY situation, but it's under the authority of the Ministry of Finance. Wage inflation is currently at around 2%. The JPY is influenced by various factors, including policies of other central banks.
II. Economic News Schedule:
Thursday:
13:30: FED Chairman's speech.
19:30: Real Income.
Q1 GDP third revision.
21:00: Pending Home Sales.
III. Technical Analysis:
OMXSTO:INDEX: Increased by 45 pips compared to the open price, with an 80% bullish candle.
Gold: Decreased by 66 pips compared to the open price, with a 70% bearish candle.
Sentiment Index: risk off
fxbook ratio: Short 30% Long 70%
Oil: rebounding
EIA Crude Oil Inventories: Actual: -9.603m Expectation: -1.5m Previous: -3.831m
IV. Analysis and Strategy:
Analysis:
Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year.
This week, the most important and Fed-preferred indicator to watch for is the PCE index.
Strategy:
Sell Gold 1910-1913
SL 1920-1922
TP 1903-1900-1897-1894
It is not recommended to trade during major news releases or important economic indicators.
Trading always carries inherent risks, and the information provided is for reference only. Individuals should take responsibility for their own trading decisions.
Wishing you successful trading!
LONGE TRADER
This week, the market is waiting for the most important and preferred inflation indicator, the PCE index.
I. SPDR Fund: Bought 1.15 trillion on June 28th.
II. Macroeconomic and Intermarket News:
According to CME, on June 27th, 25.6% predict no change in interest rates and 74.4% predict a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 29th, the predictions are 20.6% for no change and 79.4% for a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
Bond Market: Money flow indicates optimism. Junk bonds have increased significantly, while long-term government bonds have slightly risen in interest rates.
Equity Market: Big tech companies are maintaining momentum in the market. The SPX and DJ indices have seen slight decreases, while NASDAQ and RUSELL have increased.
Government Bond Yields: The 2-year yield has decreased significantly, and the 10-year yield has also decreased. The yield curve has improved, but the slope is steep.
ECB's President Lagarde: Exchange rates will be maintained at a high level for as long as necessary. The ECB is committed to achieving the inflation target.
BoE's Dhingra: Wages are responding to inflation with a lag. There are prospects for a significant decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI).
ECB's De Guindos: The interest rate hike in July has been decided, and the decision for September will depend on the data.
ECB's Vujcic: There is no reason to say what we will do in September. There is a good chance for an interest rate hike in September, but persistent inflation may lead to no pause in September.
Masato Kanda, Japan's Vice Minister of Finance, stated that authorities will intervene if the foreign exchange market becomes uncontrollable. This statement caused the USD/JPY to initially drop below 144 but stabilized later on.
ECB's Lagarde: If the baseline holds firm, we may increase rates in July. Currently, I'm not considering a pause.
FED's Powell: We believe there will be more constraints due to labor market pressures. Most policymakers expect two more interest rate hikes this year. We haven't made a decision on raising rates in the next meeting. We won't miss an opportunity to act in subsequent meetings. There is no reason to change the pace of balance sheet adjustment right now. I'm not forecasting that we'll get back to 2% inflation this year or next year; I see us making progress.
BoE Bailey: The data shows a clear presence of inflation. We will do what is necessary. It would be a bad outcome if we don't bring inflation back to target.
BOJ Governor: The core inflation is still below 2%. We are closely monitoring the JPY situation, but it's under the authority of the Ministry of Finance. Wage inflation is currently at around 2%. The JPY is influenced by various factors, including policies of other central banks.
II. Economic News Schedule:
Thursday:
13:30: FED Chairman's speech.
19:30: Real Income.
Q1 GDP third revision.
21:00: Pending Home Sales.
III. Technical Analysis:
OMXSTO:INDEX: Increased by 45 pips compared to the open price, with an 80% bullish candle.
Gold: Decreased by 66 pips compared to the open price, with a 70% bearish candle.
Sentiment Index: risk off
fxbook ratio: Short 30% Long 70%
Oil: rebounding
EIA Crude Oil Inventories: Actual: -9.603m Expectation: -1.5m Previous: -3.831m
IV. Analysis and Strategy:
Analysis:
Powell continues to maintain a hawkish stance and reiterates the possibility of two interest rate hikes this year.
This week, the most important and Fed-preferred indicator to watch for is the PCE index.
Strategy:
Sell Gold 1910-1913
SL 1920-1922
TP 1903-1900-1897-1894
It is not recommended to trade during major news releases or important economic indicators.
Trading always carries inherent risks, and the information provided is for reference only. Individuals should take responsibility for their own trading decisions.
Wishing you successful trading!
LONGE TRADER
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