Gold Analysis Ahead Of FOMC: Gold Stuck In Trendline Resistance
Updated
Once again, Gold could not break above its trendline resistance level of the $1854 price zone. Gold almost dropped more than 250 pips from its swing high spot of the $1853.50 price zone.
We already know that today is the FOMC. I don't want to take your time too long by just saying that I will repeat why Gold is rising every day.
Fundamental factors are still supportive of Gold. But today, the FOMC is more important than some other fundamental analysis. In March, the market expects a 25 BP rate hike and a four-rate hike in 2022. The CPI rate has risen since Dec 1982, and Omicron still exists in pace.
We have to focus on today's bullet points.
*How aggressive speech does he deliver about rate hikes?
*How many times does he signal for a rate hike?
*Are they hiking their rates based on economics or not?
*What about inflation?
If you get these four questions answered, it will be easy to decide what to do about the Gold. Either dollar will be strong or weak, and you will get a clear idea.
If Powell signals front-loaded economic conditions and delivers more aggressive hikes signals in March and more than four times in 2022, the gold price will drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone.
On the other hand, If Powell expects inflation to drop quickly, rate hikes depend on their upcoming economic data, and four-time rate hikes still not their mind, the gold price will rise, and the Gold may test the $1865/1870 price zone immediately.
They are the main keywords for the FOMC today, from my view.
Technically, Gold has dropped from the trendline resistance level. If you see the daily chart, it will be more precise. 1454/1858 is the trendline resistance from the current price. As long as the gold price is below the trendline resistance, it has most possible that the gold price may drop.
Only gold can break above the trendline resistance if the statement is dovish. Otherwise, it would be hard to break above the trendline this week.
Though the market has retraced from the trendline resistance, it still holds above the trendline support price zone. If the market breaks below the $1828 price zone in the short time frame, it may drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone. Finally, breaking below $1800/1795 may open the door for the $1785/1787 price zone. But for this scenario, it needs a very hawkish statement.
On the other hand, if Powell delivers a dovish statement, Gold initially may recover today's loss and may test nearly $1850/1855 price zone. Breaking above $1855 may push the almost $1870 price zone.
We already know that today is the FOMC. I don't want to take your time too long by just saying that I will repeat why Gold is rising every day.
Fundamental factors are still supportive of Gold. But today, the FOMC is more important than some other fundamental analysis. In March, the market expects a 25 BP rate hike and a four-rate hike in 2022. The CPI rate has risen since Dec 1982, and Omicron still exists in pace.
We have to focus on today's bullet points.
*How aggressive speech does he deliver about rate hikes?
*How many times does he signal for a rate hike?
*Are they hiking their rates based on economics or not?
*What about inflation?
If you get these four questions answered, it will be easy to decide what to do about the Gold. Either dollar will be strong or weak, and you will get a clear idea.
If Powell signals front-loaded economic conditions and delivers more aggressive hikes signals in March and more than four times in 2022, the gold price will drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone.
On the other hand, If Powell expects inflation to drop quickly, rate hikes depend on their upcoming economic data, and four-time rate hikes still not their mind, the gold price will rise, and the Gold may test the $1865/1870 price zone immediately.
They are the main keywords for the FOMC today, from my view.
Technically, Gold has dropped from the trendline resistance level. If you see the daily chart, it will be more precise. 1454/1858 is the trendline resistance from the current price. As long as the gold price is below the trendline resistance, it has most possible that the gold price may drop.
Only gold can break above the trendline resistance if the statement is dovish. Otherwise, it would be hard to break above the trendline this week.
Though the market has retraced from the trendline resistance, it still holds above the trendline support price zone. If the market breaks below the $1828 price zone in the short time frame, it may drop nearly $1810/1800 price zone. Finally, breaking below $1800/1795 may open the door for the $1785/1787 price zone. But for this scenario, it needs a very hawkish statement.
On the other hand, if Powell delivers a dovish statement, Gold initially may recover today's loss and may test nearly $1850/1855 price zone. Breaking above $1855 may push the almost $1870 price zone.
Note
We have updated our gold analysis: 
Note
We have updated our gold target, chart, and analysis. Please check it out...
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