GOLD - Short Squeeze Similar to 2008 ?
Updated
Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
In today's analysis, let's discuss the recent surge in gold. Have we seen this before or is it dejavu? In light of the recent fears concerning the banking system, gold has been increasing rapidly. Bitcoin follows on it's heels as many investors diversify into crypto. (Please check out related ideas below, I did a comprehensive update on the SVB collapse). Now let's get call it what it is - a short squeeze.
A short squeeze is a situation that can occur in the trading of commodities, stocks or other financial assets where investors who have bet against a particular asset (by shorting) are forced to buy back the asset at a higher price than they initially sold it for. This can happen when there is a sudden surge in demand for the asset, causing its price to rise sharply, which then triggers a chain reaction of buying by short sellers who need to cover their positions. To understand how a short squeeze works, let's start with a brief overview of short selling.
Short selling is a trading strategy in which investors sell borrowed shares of an asset, hoping to buy them back at a lower price in the future. The idea is to profit from a decline in the asset's price, as the short seller can buy back the shares at a lower price than they sold them for, pocketing the difference as profit. However, short selling is inherently risky, as there is no limit to how much the asset's price can rise. If the price of the asset increases, short sellers may be forced to buy back the shares at a higher price than they sold them for, resulting in a loss.
Now, let's assume that a large number of investors have sold a particular asset short, betting that its price will fall. If the asset's price starts to rise instead, these short sellers may start to feel pressure to buy back the shares to cover their positions, as they do not want to incur further losses. As more and more short sellers start to buy back the asset, its price may continue to rise even further, which can create a feedback loop. This, in turn, can trigger more short sellers to buy back the asset, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of buying that can drive the price up even higher.
At some point, the short sellers may become desperate to cover their positions, as they fear the asset's price will continue to rise. This can lead to a sudden surge in demand for the asset, which can cause its price to skyrocket. This sudden increase in demand for the asset, driven by short sellers trying to cover their positions, is what is known as a short squeeze. The short sellers are "squeezed" out of their positions, as they are forced to buy back the asset at a higher price than they initially sold it for. A short squeeze can happen after a strong bullish surge because gold is a popular asset for short sellers to bet against. Short sellers often sell gold futures contracts or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the expectation that the price of gold will fall, allowing them to buy back the contracts or ETFs at a lower price and pocket the difference as profit. However, if the price of gold starts to rise unexpectedly, these short sellers may become nervous and begin to buy back their positions to limit their losses. As more and more short sellers buy back their positions, this creates additional buying pressure, which can push the price of gold even higher.
If the price of gold continues to rise, some short sellers may become desperate to cover their positions, as they fear that the price will continue to increase and their losses will mount. This can lead to a short squeeze, as short sellers compete with each other to buy back gold contracts or ETFs, driving the price even higher. Additionally, a short squeeze in the gold market can be exacerbated by the fact that gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tension. During such periods, demand for gold can surge, leading to a sharp rise in its price. This can create a situation where short sellers are caught off guard and forced to cover their positions at a loss, which in turn can drive the price of gold even higher.
One notable example of a short squeeze in the gold market occurred in the early 1980s. In the late 1970s, gold prices had surged due to high inflation, political uncertainty, and a weak US dollar. However, by the early 1980s, inflation had begun to decline and the US dollar had strengthened, leading many investors to believe that gold prices would fall. As a result, a large number of investors began to sell gold short, betting that prices would decline. However, in January 1980, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, leading to a spike in geopolitical tensions and a surge in gold prices. This caused some short sellers to begin buying back gold in order to limit their losses, which in turn led to further price increases. As the short sellers continued to buy back gold, other investors began to take notice and also started buying, leading to a widespread short squeeze that caused gold prices to soar to an all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980. This short squeeze ultimately led to significant losses for many investors who had bet against gold, while those who had held long positions in the metal enjoyed substantial profits.
During past short squeezes in the gold market, prices have risen significantly, sometimes reaching all-time highs. For example, as I mentioned earlier, in January 1980, gold prices reached an all-time high of $850 per ounce during a short squeeze. Another example occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, when investors flocked to gold as a safe-haven asset amid market turmoil. In March 2008, gold was trading around $900 per ounce, but by September 2011, it had reached an all-time high of $1,920 per ounce. Can it be possible to see something similar to this over the next few months ? In other words, be careful to short gold at resistance. This is exactly what would seems like a logical scenario after a period of upward trading, but we're trading at ATH's and in uncharted territory, so who can say where the next resistance zone is?
It's important to note that short squeezes are unpredictable events and can be influenced by various market conditions and factors. Additionally, historical price movements may not necessarily indicate future price movements. Therefore, it's always important to conduct thorough research and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decisions.
_______________________
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We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
In today's analysis, let's discuss the recent surge in gold. Have we seen this before or is it dejavu? In light of the recent fears concerning the banking system, gold has been increasing rapidly. Bitcoin follows on it's heels as many investors diversify into crypto. (Please check out related ideas below, I did a comprehensive update on the SVB collapse). Now let's get call it what it is - a short squeeze.
A short squeeze is a situation that can occur in the trading of commodities, stocks or other financial assets where investors who have bet against a particular asset (by shorting) are forced to buy back the asset at a higher price than they initially sold it for. This can happen when there is a sudden surge in demand for the asset, causing its price to rise sharply, which then triggers a chain reaction of buying by short sellers who need to cover their positions. To understand how a short squeeze works, let's start with a brief overview of short selling.
Short selling is a trading strategy in which investors sell borrowed shares of an asset, hoping to buy them back at a lower price in the future. The idea is to profit from a decline in the asset's price, as the short seller can buy back the shares at a lower price than they sold them for, pocketing the difference as profit. However, short selling is inherently risky, as there is no limit to how much the asset's price can rise. If the price of the asset increases, short sellers may be forced to buy back the shares at a higher price than they sold them for, resulting in a loss.
Now, let's assume that a large number of investors have sold a particular asset short, betting that its price will fall. If the asset's price starts to rise instead, these short sellers may start to feel pressure to buy back the shares to cover their positions, as they do not want to incur further losses. As more and more short sellers start to buy back the asset, its price may continue to rise even further, which can create a feedback loop. This, in turn, can trigger more short sellers to buy back the asset, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of buying that can drive the price up even higher.
At some point, the short sellers may become desperate to cover their positions, as they fear the asset's price will continue to rise. This can lead to a sudden surge in demand for the asset, which can cause its price to skyrocket. This sudden increase in demand for the asset, driven by short sellers trying to cover their positions, is what is known as a short squeeze. The short sellers are "squeezed" out of their positions, as they are forced to buy back the asset at a higher price than they initially sold it for. A short squeeze can happen after a strong bullish surge because gold is a popular asset for short sellers to bet against. Short sellers often sell gold futures contracts or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the expectation that the price of gold will fall, allowing them to buy back the contracts or ETFs at a lower price and pocket the difference as profit. However, if the price of gold starts to rise unexpectedly, these short sellers may become nervous and begin to buy back their positions to limit their losses. As more and more short sellers buy back their positions, this creates additional buying pressure, which can push the price of gold even higher.
If the price of gold continues to rise, some short sellers may become desperate to cover their positions, as they fear that the price will continue to increase and their losses will mount. This can lead to a short squeeze, as short sellers compete with each other to buy back gold contracts or ETFs, driving the price even higher. Additionally, a short squeeze in the gold market can be exacerbated by the fact that gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tension. During such periods, demand for gold can surge, leading to a sharp rise in its price. This can create a situation where short sellers are caught off guard and forced to cover their positions at a loss, which in turn can drive the price of gold even higher.
One notable example of a short squeeze in the gold market occurred in the early 1980s. In the late 1970s, gold prices had surged due to high inflation, political uncertainty, and a weak US dollar. However, by the early 1980s, inflation had begun to decline and the US dollar had strengthened, leading many investors to believe that gold prices would fall. As a result, a large number of investors began to sell gold short, betting that prices would decline. However, in January 1980, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, leading to a spike in geopolitical tensions and a surge in gold prices. This caused some short sellers to begin buying back gold in order to limit their losses, which in turn led to further price increases. As the short sellers continued to buy back gold, other investors began to take notice and also started buying, leading to a widespread short squeeze that caused gold prices to soar to an all-time high of $850 per ounce in January 1980. This short squeeze ultimately led to significant losses for many investors who had bet against gold, while those who had held long positions in the metal enjoyed substantial profits.
During past short squeezes in the gold market, prices have risen significantly, sometimes reaching all-time highs. For example, as I mentioned earlier, in January 1980, gold prices reached an all-time high of $850 per ounce during a short squeeze. Another example occurred during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, when investors flocked to gold as a safe-haven asset amid market turmoil. In March 2008, gold was trading around $900 per ounce, but by September 2011, it had reached an all-time high of $1,920 per ounce. Can it be possible to see something similar to this over the next few months ? In other words, be careful to short gold at resistance. This is exactly what would seems like a logical scenario after a period of upward trading, but we're trading at ATH's and in uncharted territory, so who can say where the next resistance zone is?
It's important to note that short squeezes are unpredictable events and can be influenced by various market conditions and factors. Additionally, historical price movements may not necessarily indicate future price movements. Therefore, it's always important to conduct thorough research and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decisions.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
Note
Consolidating under strong resistance : GOLD might make a new ATH soon.Note
GOLD faces serious resistance towards ATH, The price consolidating and constantly retesting the upper resistance zone is bullish. We may be looking at a new ATH in 2024
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