https://www.tradingview.com/x/na5sDJvT/
On Thursday (April 17), after hitting a record high of $3,357.66, the spot gold price fell back, and the bulls and bears were engaged in a fierce game. Short-term profit-taking pressure emerged, but fundamental support still exists, and key support levels will determine the future market trend.
Fundamental analysis
Against the backdrop of rising global trade tensions, Trump unexpectedly held direct negotiations with Japanese officials on tariffs on Wednesday and said that "significant progress" had been made. This news slightly improved global risk sentiment and became one of the catalysts for gold's correction.
In terms of US economic data, data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that retail sales grew 1.4% in March, the largest increase in more than two years, better than the market's expectation of 1.3%. Previously revised data showed a 0.2% increase in February. This data, coupled with the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that he was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near term, provided support for the US dollar.
However, the market is still worried about the possible economic impact of Trump's radical trade policy. The rapid escalation of global trade frictions and concerns about a global recession continue to provide support for gold, a safe-haven asset. In addition, the market is still preparing for the Fed to resume the rate cut cycle in June, which limits further action by dollar bulls and becomes a support factor for gold.
Technical analyst interpretation:
The 2-hour chart shows that gold prices fell after hitting a record high of $3,357.66 and are currently fluctuating above the psychological level of $3,300. The MA55 moving average is currently located near $3,250.39, forming the first important support. Above this, prices remain in an upward trend intact. The RSI indicator fell back from the overbought area to the 63.17 level, releasing some overbought pressure, but still operating in a relatively strong range.
The MACD indicator shows that short-term momentum has weakened, and DIFF:26.79 and DEA:28.93 form a weak dead cross, suggesting that short-term adjustment pressure has increased.
From the daily level, gold prices have maintained a clear upward channel this year, and the MA55 and MA200 moving averages show an ideal bullish arrangement, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is still strong. However, RSI (14) reached 72.46, entering a relatively obvious overbought area, suggesting an increase in the risk of short-term adjustments.
The overall technical structure shows that the $3,300 mark has become a recent turning point for long and short positions. If it stands firmly, a rebound is expected; if it fails, it may continue to pull back to the support level of $3,250. As a historical high, $3,357.66 constitutes a strong resistance in the short term.
Market sentiment observation
The current market sentiment is in a typical high-level divergence stage. On the one hand, the record high gold price has triggered a profit-taking impulse; on the other hand, the fundamental support provided by geopolitical risks and global trade frictions has given bulls confidence. Trading volume analysis shows that the volume accompanying the pullback is relatively mild, suggesting that this may be a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal.
From the perspective of behavioral finance, the market shows a clear anchoring effect near the psychological integer mark of $3,300, market expectations are clearly differentiated, and sentiment indicators show a slight tendency to be cautious. The short-term improvement in risk sentiment has caused some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to risky assets, but whether this shift can continue remains to be seen.
Outlook for the future
Short-term outlook: Gold prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $3250-3350, releasing the overbought pressure of technical indicators. The key support level is $3250 near the MA55 moving average and the previous high of $3300. If the US dollar strengthens or risk sentiment improves further, gold prices may test the $3200 level; if geopolitical risks heat up again, it is expected to re-challenge the historical high of $3357.66.
XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD
On Thursday (April 17), after hitting a record high of $3,357.66, the spot gold price fell back, and the bulls and bears were engaged in a fierce game. Short-term profit-taking pressure emerged, but fundamental support still exists, and key support levels will determine the future market trend.
Fundamental analysis
Against the backdrop of rising global trade tensions, Trump unexpectedly held direct negotiations with Japanese officials on tariffs on Wednesday and said that "significant progress" had been made. This news slightly improved global risk sentiment and became one of the catalysts for gold's correction.
In terms of US economic data, data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that retail sales grew 1.4% in March, the largest increase in more than two years, better than the market's expectation of 1.3%. Previously revised data showed a 0.2% increase in February. This data, coupled with the remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that he was not inclined to cut interest rates in the near term, provided support for the US dollar.
However, the market is still worried about the possible economic impact of Trump's radical trade policy. The rapid escalation of global trade frictions and concerns about a global recession continue to provide support for gold, a safe-haven asset. In addition, the market is still preparing for the Fed to resume the rate cut cycle in June, which limits further action by dollar bulls and becomes a support factor for gold.
Technical analyst interpretation:
The 2-hour chart shows that gold prices fell after hitting a record high of $3,357.66 and are currently fluctuating above the psychological level of $3,300. The MA55 moving average is currently located near $3,250.39, forming the first important support. Above this, prices remain in an upward trend intact. The RSI indicator fell back from the overbought area to the 63.17 level, releasing some overbought pressure, but still operating in a relatively strong range.
The MACD indicator shows that short-term momentum has weakened, and DIFF:26.79 and DEA:28.93 form a weak dead cross, suggesting that short-term adjustment pressure has increased.
From the daily level, gold prices have maintained a clear upward channel this year, and the MA55 and MA200 moving averages show an ideal bullish arrangement, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is still strong. However, RSI (14) reached 72.46, entering a relatively obvious overbought area, suggesting an increase in the risk of short-term adjustments.
The overall technical structure shows that the $3,300 mark has become a recent turning point for long and short positions. If it stands firmly, a rebound is expected; if it fails, it may continue to pull back to the support level of $3,250. As a historical high, $3,357.66 constitutes a strong resistance in the short term.
Market sentiment observation
The current market sentiment is in a typical high-level divergence stage. On the one hand, the record high gold price has triggered a profit-taking impulse; on the other hand, the fundamental support provided by geopolitical risks and global trade frictions has given bulls confidence. Trading volume analysis shows that the volume accompanying the pullback is relatively mild, suggesting that this may be a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal.
From the perspective of behavioral finance, the market shows a clear anchoring effect near the psychological integer mark of $3,300, market expectations are clearly differentiated, and sentiment indicators show a slight tendency to be cautious. The short-term improvement in risk sentiment has caused some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to risky assets, but whether this shift can continue remains to be seen.
Outlook for the future
Short-term outlook: Gold prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $3250-3350, releasing the overbought pressure of technical indicators. The key support level is $3250 near the MA55 moving average and the previous high of $3300. If the US dollar strengthens or risk sentiment improves further, gold prices may test the $3200 level; if geopolitical risks heat up again, it is expected to re-challenge the historical high of $3357.66.
XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD 
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.