GOLD 26/6/2023
SPDR CONTINUES TO SELL OFF!!!!
I. SPDR Fund: Sold 2.6 trillion on June 23rd.
II. Macroeconomic and Intermarket News:
According to CME: On June 23rd, there is a 24.4% prediction of keeping interest rates unchanged and a 75.6% prediction of a 0.25% increase in the July meeting. On June 26th, there is a 28.1% prediction of keeping interest rates unchanged and a 71.9% prediction of a 0.25% increase in the July meeting.
Bond Market: Money continues to flow out gradually.
Junk bonds: Continue to decrease.
High-yield government bonds: Decrease.
Equity Market: Money adjusts at the end of the week.
SPX: Slight decrease.
DJ: Slight decrease.
NASDAQ: Decrease.
RUSELL: Sharp decrease.
Government Bond Yields:
2-year term: Sharp decrease.
10-year term: Sharp decrease.
Yield Curve: Continued high spread.
EU Manufacturing PMI decreased to 43.6 from the previous 44.8.
EU Services PMI decreased to 52.4 from the previous 55.1.
UK Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.2 from the previous 47.1.
UK Services PMI decreased to 53.7 from the previous 55.2.
Overall PMI decreased to 46.3 from the previous 48.4.
Overall Services PMI decreased to 54.1 from the previous 54.9.
Fed's Bostic: Fed is trying to bring the economy back to a balanced supply-demand state. High inflation is a top concern, and lowering it is our top priority. I expect unemployment rates to increase from historically low levels. *I support not raising interest rates for the remainder of the year.
Fed's Daly: I remain cautious about the possibility of further tightening, which is a legitimate reason to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. Predicting two more interest rate hikes this year is highly reasonable. I fully support the decision to keep interest rates unchanged and monitor data in June.
II. Economic News and Indicators:
Monday:
No information available.
Tuesday:
15:30: MPC member speech and ECB member speech.
16:30: ECB member speech.
19:00: Construction permits and ECB member speech.
19:30: Durable goods orders and core orders.
20:00: House price index.
21:00: CB consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond manufacturing index.
Wednesday:
17:30: MPC member speech.
19:30: Retail sales excluding autos, wholesale inventories.
20:30: BOE Chairman and Fed Chairman speech.
22:00: ECB Chairman speech.
Thursday:
13:30: Fed Chairman speech.
19:30: Personal income.
Revised Q1 GDP.
21:00: Pending home sales.
Friday:
8:30: Manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI from China.
13:00: Revised Q1 GDP for the UK.
13:30: Swiss retail sales.
16:00: CPI and core CPI from the EU, unemployment rate.
19:30: PCE and core PCE, personal income and expenditure.
20:35: Chicago PMI.
21:00: University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
III. Technical Analysis:
OMXSTO:INDEX: Increased by 50 pips from the opening price, with a 70% bullish candle.
Weekly candle increased by 55 pips from the opening price, with a 60% bullish candle.
Gold: Increased by 100 pips from the opening price, with a 40% bullish candle.
Weekly candle decreased by 370 pips from the opening price, with an 80% bearish candle.
Sentiment index: Risk-on towards the end of the day.
Ratio according to fxbook: Short 45%, Long 55%.
Oil: Trading around the reference price, with minimal volatility.
IV. Analysis and Strategy:
Analysis:
The FED maintains its plan on the economic policy interest rate.
Observing economic indicators and statements this week to confirm the next direction for July.
Strategy:
Sell Gold 1926-1930
SL 1940
TP 1920-1918-1911
It is not recommended to trade during major news releases or important economic indicators.
Trading always carries risks, and the provided information is for reference only. Traders should take responsibility for their own trading decisions.
Wishing you successful trading!
LONGE TRADER
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