Gold is sitting right at a critical ascending trendline support—this could be the make-or-break level between wave continuation and deeper retracement.
I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds.
📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 Kickoff
If support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave.
Look for:
Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse.
Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence.
Volume confirmation, if available.
Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib Retracements
If the trendline breaks decisively:
Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high.
This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure.
Key Support Zones:
0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,285
0.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250
Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal.
🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket Thoughts
You're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic:
S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold.
Two likely macro triggers:
ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold.
Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold.
Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout.
My trading plan:
Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strength Below trendline (tight SL ~$2,300) ~$2,475–$2,500
Wait/Short Bias - Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily — Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone
I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds.
📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 Kickoff
If support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave.
Look for:
Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse.
Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence.
Volume confirmation, if available.
Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib Retracements
If the trendline breaks decisively:
Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high.
This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure.
Key Support Zones:
0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,285
0.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250
Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal.
🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket Thoughts
You're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic:
S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold.
Two likely macro triggers:
ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold.
Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold.
Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout.
My trading plan:
Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strength Below trendline (tight SL ~$2,300) ~$2,475–$2,500
Wait/Short Bias - Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily — Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.