At first glance, it may seem like gold is consolidating. In reality, price is unfolding inside a broadening formation — a structure where highs stretch higher, lows drop deeper, and real direction vanishes behind controlled volatility. This isn’t random noise. It’s Smart Money engineering a distribution phase under the cover of market indecision. And right now, the direction is forming clearly — downward.
The key moment was the failed breakout above 3357 on May 24. Volume spiked 19% above average, but the candle body collapsed. That’s a textbook deviation — a classic liquidity grab. The next candle confirmed the failure by closing back below the level, and no bullish recovery followed. Instead, price printed a lower high around 3305–3315, failing to retest the top. And when price can’t go higher — it usually goes lower.
Confirmation comes from the Anchored VWAP from May 13, which was broken cleanly and never retested. That’s a major shift in control — from buyer to seller. Now price trades below VWAP, with every bullish candle fading and every bearish reaction gaining strength. This is not trend continuation. This is exhaustion.
Volume profile shows the Point of Control between 3297 and 3301 — and price sits well below it. The bulk of liquidity is now overhead. That zone between 3305–3315 is where Smart Money already sold once — and if price returns there, it becomes an ideal re-entry short zone, especially if followed by rejection candles or low-volume pushups.
Targets are clean:
→ 3228 — first liquidity shelf.
→ 3164 — former impulse base.
→ 3084 — if breakdown accelerates.
Everything lines up: deviation, failed breakout, VWAP lost, volume fading, lower highs forming. This isn’t a pause. This is a phase transition — and the market already voted.
The key moment was the failed breakout above 3357 on May 24. Volume spiked 19% above average, but the candle body collapsed. That’s a textbook deviation — a classic liquidity grab. The next candle confirmed the failure by closing back below the level, and no bullish recovery followed. Instead, price printed a lower high around 3305–3315, failing to retest the top. And when price can’t go higher — it usually goes lower.
Confirmation comes from the Anchored VWAP from May 13, which was broken cleanly and never retested. That’s a major shift in control — from buyer to seller. Now price trades below VWAP, with every bullish candle fading and every bearish reaction gaining strength. This is not trend continuation. This is exhaustion.
Volume profile shows the Point of Control between 3297 and 3301 — and price sits well below it. The bulk of liquidity is now overhead. That zone between 3305–3315 is where Smart Money already sold once — and if price returns there, it becomes an ideal re-entry short zone, especially if followed by rejection candles or low-volume pushups.
Targets are clean:
→ 3228 — first liquidity shelf.
→ 3164 — former impulse base.
→ 3084 — if breakdown accelerates.
Everything lines up: deviation, failed breakout, VWAP lost, volume fading, lower highs forming. This isn’t a pause. This is a phase transition — and the market already voted.
Trade closed: stop reached
Note
On Friday, I provided a clear breakdown of the gold chart: a false breakout, a return below VWAP, and a distribution structure forming within a broadening wedge. Everything pointed to a downside — volume wasn’t increasing, candles were weakening, momentum was fading. I wasn’t guessing; I was reading the chart — and the chart clearly showed this. At the time, everything aligned: logical, precise, and technically sound.But the market is a tough beast. And on Saturday, it ignored the technical logic and loaded the news cycle.
At first, it looked like background noise — a few tariffs, some geopolitical tensions, and a slightly weaker dollar. But by Monday’s open, it was clear: this wasn’t background noise — it was fuel. A gap up, a $50+ rally in a single session, a breakout above the 3357 zone, and a solid hold above it.
Structure? Gone.
VWAP? Below the price.
Those volumes we interpreted as weakness? Turned out to be quiet accumulation before the breakout.
Classic textbook case: we saw distribution, but the market was really just collecting stops before the actual move began.
The key takeaway: the analysis wasn’t wrong — it played out 100% based on the data we had at the time. The mistake would’ve been to cling to a scenario after the market had already invalidated it. But we let it go.
So what now?
Price is trading at 3369. We've broken the key zone, surpassed the upper boundary of the previous structure, and moved above all major moving averages and volume levels. This is no longer a correction or a false start — this is a phase shift. The same 3357 level, where we expected a rejection, is now a support zone.
Below that — the setup is invalid.
Above — we’re targeting 3410, and if momentum picks up, potentially a run toward all-time highs.
The lesson?
We weren’t wrong — we adapted.
And that’s the most important skill in trading: accepting that the market is always right, and being willing to change your position when the rules of the game shift.
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🔗 Сайт totoshkatrades.com
👨🎓 Наш телеграм t.me/totoshkatrading
🉐 Платформы linktr.ee/totoshka55
💬 Наши контакты @Totoshkatips
👨🎓 Наш телеграм t.me/totoshkatrading
🉐 Платформы linktr.ee/totoshka55
💬 Наши контакты @Totoshkatips
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.