Gold analysis 1/09/24
FA: Rate-cut rotation has a reputation as a sleepy time in global stock markets, and the U.S. is no exception. Historically after rate cuts market has a dive, also September is the weakest month for the US market in general. At the next FOMC meeting, they will cut the rate by 25-50 points, and this news is already in price.
TA: Gold has been near ATH for quite some time, looks like the price is in a range and I would love to see liquidity sweep from one of the sides( top or bottom). Also one of the important things for GOLD is DXY. DXY is oversold and it has 4h and daily FVG higher + it just tested the bottom of the global range (almost 2 years in consolidation), and most likely it will bounce till dFVG, also on 15m and 1h time frame DXY has uptrend (MS( ChoCH) and BoS) until uptrend on 1h is not broken I will no consider reversal on DXY. But more about DXY in the next post
Considering all of this I would love to see moving forward on one side and then aggressive movement in the opposite direction. Keep in mind that usually at the beginning of the month, there is manipulation, and then the price moves in a real direction (learn about monthly/weekly/daily range structure