By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The price of gold has hit record highs, hovering around $3,100 per ounce, driven by renewed investor appetite for safe-haven assets in the face of growing uncertainty in international markets.
Drivers of the rally
The decision to impose 25% tariffs on the automotive sector, announced by US President Donald Trump, has heightened concerns about a possible escalation in the trade war. This move has prompted both institutional and individual investors to seek safety in gold, raising its demand significantly. At the same time, instability in geopolitical scenarios - including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East - has reinforced the perception of gold as a safe-haven asset in times of global uncertainty.
Market movements in other metals
In today's Asian session on Friday, other precious metals were not far behind: platinum was stable at around $989.55 per ounce, while silver reached a 12-year high, trading at $35,283 per ounce. These dynamics reflect a generalized trend of seeking refuge from the uncertainties of the economic environment.
European Session Gold Analysis
During the Asian session, spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,073.79 per ounce after briefly hitting a high of $3,077.67. Likewise, gold futures for May were up 0.7% at $3,112.72 per ounce. Already in the European session, we have seen this bullish momentum has contracted, pushing the price down to $3,065.91. The RSI has moved from its overbought high of 76.98% in the Asian session to 55.03% at the European start. This seems to be an oxygen intake to continue the climb, a small stop in the momentum because if we look at the crosses of averages continue to expand their amplitude, which shows us that there is a latent volatility in this asset that is very likely to extend throughout the day if at the opening of the U.S. session the right conditions are met.
Inflation and monetary policy expectations
The market is also keeping an eye on the upcoming release of the PCE price index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. A figure above expectations could decrease the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which in turn would continue to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset.
Conclusion
Gold's current outlook clearly reflects not only its role as a traditional safe haven at the moment, but also the markets' reaction to a trade war that is adding increased uncertainty to the global economy. The volatility observed and the continued expansion in the crosses of averages indicate that, despite the corrective oxygen taken in the European session, the upward momentum could resume ahead of the US opening. In this context, the Fed's decision and the evolution of trade tensions will be determining factors for the precious metal's trajectory, making constant monitoring of global events indispensable.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The price of gold has hit record highs, hovering around $3,100 per ounce, driven by renewed investor appetite for safe-haven assets in the face of growing uncertainty in international markets.
Drivers of the rally
The decision to impose 25% tariffs on the automotive sector, announced by US President Donald Trump, has heightened concerns about a possible escalation in the trade war. This move has prompted both institutional and individual investors to seek safety in gold, raising its demand significantly. At the same time, instability in geopolitical scenarios - including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East - has reinforced the perception of gold as a safe-haven asset in times of global uncertainty.
Market movements in other metals
In today's Asian session on Friday, other precious metals were not far behind: platinum was stable at around $989.55 per ounce, while silver reached a 12-year high, trading at $35,283 per ounce. These dynamics reflect a generalized trend of seeking refuge from the uncertainties of the economic environment.
European Session Gold Analysis
During the Asian session, spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,073.79 per ounce after briefly hitting a high of $3,077.67. Likewise, gold futures for May were up 0.7% at $3,112.72 per ounce. Already in the European session, we have seen this bullish momentum has contracted, pushing the price down to $3,065.91. The RSI has moved from its overbought high of 76.98% in the Asian session to 55.03% at the European start. This seems to be an oxygen intake to continue the climb, a small stop in the momentum because if we look at the crosses of averages continue to expand their amplitude, which shows us that there is a latent volatility in this asset that is very likely to extend throughout the day if at the opening of the U.S. session the right conditions are met.
Inflation and monetary policy expectations
The market is also keeping an eye on the upcoming release of the PCE price index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. A figure above expectations could decrease the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which in turn would continue to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset.
Conclusion
Gold's current outlook clearly reflects not only its role as a traditional safe haven at the moment, but also the markets' reaction to a trade war that is adding increased uncertainty to the global economy. The volatility observed and the continued expansion in the crosses of averages indicate that, despite the corrective oxygen taken in the European session, the upward momentum could resume ahead of the US opening. In this context, the Fed's decision and the evolution of trade tensions will be determining factors for the precious metal's trajectory, making constant monitoring of global events indispensable.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.