🏛 1. Current Market Structure
📉 Gold is currently consolidating and compressing between a Supply Zone below and a 4H FVG above.
🔎 This setup reflects market indecision, typical ahead of a major event like the FOMC.
🌍 2. Bigger Picture Outlook
⚠️ Powell's speech is scheduled in 2 hours, with very low probability of a rate cut.
💰 This would generally benefit gold, but keep in mind that some of this expectation might have already been priced in yesterday.
🔍 3. Key Technical Observations
🟩 4H FVG: Liquidity zone just above the current price, potential target if the price breaks upward.
🟫 Supply Zone: Key structural support, tested multiple times in the past hours.
📐 Classic compression pattern, often leading to a major breakout, but no clear direction confirmed yet.
🎯 4. Short-Term Expectations
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from the 4H FVG
Drop back to the Supply Zone
Potential liquidity sweep below $3,350
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Clear break above the 4H FVG
Potential rally towards $3,500 if the FED surprises or stop-losses get hunted.
🔥 5. Upcoming Catalysts
🕰 FOMC in 2 hours: Main short-term risk factor.
💸 Powell + Rates: If rates remain unchanged with a cautious tone, gold could break out to the upside.
🔎 Immediate volume and reaction will be critical to confirm a true breakout.
✅ Conclusion
👉 Caution is advised ahead of the FOMC. The market seems ready for a sharp move in either direction, but the outcome will heavily depend on Powell's tone.
📍 Key levels to watch:
4H FVG (~$3,420)
Supply Zone (~$3,370)
Psychological $3,500 level if a bullish surprise unfolds.
📉 Gold is currently consolidating and compressing between a Supply Zone below and a 4H FVG above.
🔎 This setup reflects market indecision, typical ahead of a major event like the FOMC.
🌍 2. Bigger Picture Outlook
⚠️ Powell's speech is scheduled in 2 hours, with very low probability of a rate cut.
💰 This would generally benefit gold, but keep in mind that some of this expectation might have already been priced in yesterday.
🔍 3. Key Technical Observations
🟩 4H FVG: Liquidity zone just above the current price, potential target if the price breaks upward.
🟫 Supply Zone: Key structural support, tested multiple times in the past hours.
📐 Classic compression pattern, often leading to a major breakout, but no clear direction confirmed yet.
🎯 4. Short-Term Expectations
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from the 4H FVG
Drop back to the Supply Zone
Potential liquidity sweep below $3,350
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Clear break above the 4H FVG
Potential rally towards $3,500 if the FED surprises or stop-losses get hunted.
🔥 5. Upcoming Catalysts
🕰 FOMC in 2 hours: Main short-term risk factor.
💸 Powell + Rates: If rates remain unchanged with a cautious tone, gold could break out to the upside.
🔎 Immediate volume and reaction will be critical to confirm a true breakout.
✅ Conclusion
👉 Caution is advised ahead of the FOMC. The market seems ready for a sharp move in either direction, but the outcome will heavily depend on Powell's tone.
📍 Key levels to watch:
4H FVG (~$3,420)
Supply Zone (~$3,370)
Psychological $3,500 level if a bullish surprise unfolds.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.