The analysis focuses on the short-term to medium-term timeframe.
Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: At the current price of 157.04, the market is in a tug-of-war between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears).
Bulls are defending key support levels near 152.48 (Fibonacci 100% retracement of Wave C) and 154.34 (Expanded Flat target). A hold above these levels could signal a potential reversal.
Bears are attacking resistance levels at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100% projection of Wave C) and 162.82 (Expanded Flat target). A break below 152.48 could accelerate downward momentum.
Recent Price History: The market has been in a downtrend recently, with the price dropping from 191.18 (July 10, 2024) to 157.04. Key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 161.8% retracement at 159.84) and Elliott Wave patterns (e.g., Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate) have guided this decline. Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI at 47.51) suggest the downtrend may be losing steam, but the MACD histogram turning positive hints at a potential short-term bounce.
Current Sentiment (Technical & News):
Technical Indicators: Mixed signals. RSI (47.51) is neutral, while MACD shows a bullish crossover (histogram turning positive). The price is below key moving averages (e.g., 200-day SMA at 167.35), indicating a bearish bias.
News Sentiment: Mixed to slightly negative. Ad revenue pressures and regulatory risks weigh on sentiment, but long-term growth catalysts (AI, cloud) provide optimism. Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating despite near-term challenges.
Synthesis: The technical picture aligns with the news—short-term bearishness (price below MAs, ad revenue concerns) but potential for a reversal if support holds (undervaluation, bullish MACD).
Key Levels & Momentum:
The price is currently below the 50-day SMA (161.89) and 200-day SMA (167.35), signaling bearish dominance.
Momentum is fading (RSI neutral, Stochastic not oversold), but the MACD histogram suggests a possible short-term bounce.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis (Contextualized to Current Price)
Relevant Elliott Wave Patterns:
Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate (Valid): Suggests the downtrend may be nearing completion, with Wave 5 potentially ending near 152.48-154.34 (Fibonacci 100% projection).
Expanded Flat Upward Candidate (Potentially Valid): If the price holds above 152.48, this pattern could signal a corrective rally toward 162.82.
Wave Count vs. Indicators/Sentiment:
The Diagonal Ending pattern contradicts the bearish news sentiment but aligns with oversold technicals (RSI, MACD). This divergence suggests a potential reversal if support holds.
The Expanded Flat pattern would confirm a bullish reversal if the price breaks above 160.31.
Near-Term Projections:
Downside: A break below 152.48 could extend losses to 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci projection).
Upside: A hold above 152.48 and break above 160.31 could target 162.82 (Expanded Flat target) and 167.35 (200-day SMA).
3. Strategy Derivation (Realistic, Actionable NOW, News Considered)
Primary Strategy: WAIT (due to conflicting signals).
Why Wait? The technical setup is mixed (bullish MACD vs. bearish MAs), and news sentiment is neutral-to-negative. The upcoming Q1 earnings could add volatility.
If Price Holds Support (152.48-154.34):
BUY with confirmation (e.g., break above 160.31).
Entry Zone: 154.34-156.13 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
Stop-Loss: 151.44 (below recent low).
Take Profit: TP1 at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100%), TP2 at 162.82 (Expanded Flat target).
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 for TP1.
If Price Breaks Below Support (152.48):
SELL with confirmation (e.g., break below 150.06).
Entry Zone: 152.48-151.44.
Stop-Loss: 154.34 (above support).
Take Profit: TP1 at 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci), TP2 at 145.90 (Wave 5 projection).
News Context Check:
Earnings uncertainty and ad revenue pressures favor caution. Reduce position size if trading.
4. Trade Setup (Actionable, Realistic, News Aware)
Direction: WAIT (watch key levels).
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside: 160.31 (breakout confirmation).
Downside: 152.48 (breakdown confirmation).
News Reminder: Be mindful of Q1 earnings and ad revenue trends.
5. Summary Section
✅ Investor / Long-Term Holder Summary:
Key Support: 152.48 (accumulation zone if held).
Long-Term Outlook: Undervalued (DCF: $260 vs. $157). Focus on AI/cloud growth.
Action: Wait for pullback to 152.48 or break above 167.35 (200-day SMA).
Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: At the current price of 157.04, the market is in a tug-of-war between buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears).
Bulls are defending key support levels near 152.48 (Fibonacci 100% retracement of Wave C) and 154.34 (Expanded Flat target). A hold above these levels could signal a potential reversal.
Bears are attacking resistance levels at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100% projection of Wave C) and 162.82 (Expanded Flat target). A break below 152.48 could accelerate downward momentum.
Recent Price History: The market has been in a downtrend recently, with the price dropping from 191.18 (July 10, 2024) to 157.04. Key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 161.8% retracement at 159.84) and Elliott Wave patterns (e.g., Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate) have guided this decline. Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI at 47.51) suggest the downtrend may be losing steam, but the MACD histogram turning positive hints at a potential short-term bounce.
Current Sentiment (Technical & News):
Technical Indicators: Mixed signals. RSI (47.51) is neutral, while MACD shows a bullish crossover (histogram turning positive). The price is below key moving averages (e.g., 200-day SMA at 167.35), indicating a bearish bias.
News Sentiment: Mixed to slightly negative. Ad revenue pressures and regulatory risks weigh on sentiment, but long-term growth catalysts (AI, cloud) provide optimism. Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating despite near-term challenges.
Synthesis: The technical picture aligns with the news—short-term bearishness (price below MAs, ad revenue concerns) but potential for a reversal if support holds (undervaluation, bullish MACD).
Key Levels & Momentum:
The price is currently below the 50-day SMA (161.89) and 200-day SMA (167.35), signaling bearish dominance.
Momentum is fading (RSI neutral, Stochastic not oversold), but the MACD histogram suggests a possible short-term bounce.
2. Elliott Wave Analysis (Contextualized to Current Price)
Relevant Elliott Wave Patterns:
Diagonal Ending Downward Candidate (Valid): Suggests the downtrend may be nearing completion, with Wave 5 potentially ending near 152.48-154.34 (Fibonacci 100% projection).
Expanded Flat Upward Candidate (Potentially Valid): If the price holds above 152.48, this pattern could signal a corrective rally toward 162.82.
Wave Count vs. Indicators/Sentiment:
The Diagonal Ending pattern contradicts the bearish news sentiment but aligns with oversold technicals (RSI, MACD). This divergence suggests a potential reversal if support holds.
The Expanded Flat pattern would confirm a bullish reversal if the price breaks above 160.31.
Near-Term Projections:
Downside: A break below 152.48 could extend losses to 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci projection).
Upside: A hold above 152.48 and break above 160.31 could target 162.82 (Expanded Flat target) and 167.35 (200-day SMA).
3. Strategy Derivation (Realistic, Actionable NOW, News Considered)
Primary Strategy: WAIT (due to conflicting signals).
Why Wait? The technical setup is mixed (bullish MACD vs. bearish MAs), and news sentiment is neutral-to-negative. The upcoming Q1 earnings could add volatility.
If Price Holds Support (152.48-154.34):
BUY with confirmation (e.g., break above 160.31).
Entry Zone: 154.34-156.13 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
Stop-Loss: 151.44 (below recent low).
Take Profit: TP1 at 160.31 (Fibonacci 100%), TP2 at 162.82 (Expanded Flat target).
Risk/Reward: ~1:2 for TP1.
If Price Breaks Below Support (152.48):
SELL with confirmation (e.g., break below 150.06).
Entry Zone: 152.48-151.44.
Stop-Loss: 154.34 (above support).
Take Profit: TP1 at 148.36 (161.8% Fibonacci), TP2 at 145.90 (Wave 5 projection).
News Context Check:
Earnings uncertainty and ad revenue pressures favor caution. Reduce position size if trading.
4. Trade Setup (Actionable, Realistic, News Aware)
Direction: WAIT (watch key levels).
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside: 160.31 (breakout confirmation).
Downside: 152.48 (breakdown confirmation).
News Reminder: Be mindful of Q1 earnings and ad revenue trends.
5. Summary Section
✅ Investor / Long-Term Holder Summary:
Key Support: 152.48 (accumulation zone if held).
Long-Term Outlook: Undervalued (DCF: $260 vs. $157). Focus on AI/cloud growth.
Action: Wait for pullback to 152.48 or break above 167.35 (200-day SMA).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.