GPRO LOCKUP EXPIRATION PLAY HEADS UP
Updated
I've been talking about this one for weeks short but thought I'de post a chart. GPRO falls in my catagory of a Hype Runner Cool Ipo. The coolness factor attracts more $ than non cool especially at the top of a bull market. There were several unusual tactical moves by the company during the IPO and the 6 month lockup expiration...the net result is that on Feb 17th 76 mil +/- shares will unlock. That's huge by the way. The original lockup expiration was on Dec 23...but alas they made more shares available and put off the big unlock to Feb 17th thus many don't even know it's coming. Although the shorts have started finding it recently. That huge share amount is "overhang"...and those in the know have been selling going into the lockup expiration. Earnings are on Jan 29th ( moved to Feb 5 after close)...and they should be good even though the cuttent PE is around 175...at least they do have earnings. There are plenty of big hype runner IPO's with no earnings. I would think it would pop and squeeeze going into earnings, maybe even starting now...but between earnings and lockup expiration and beyond..call me crazy but there might be some more downside potential..as those big shares unlock and are able to sell. Gpro is pretty skilled at news but lately they've been eerily quiet. Info is a little obscured on this one...do your own due dilligence on the numbers. I just wanted to bring the "overhang" to your attention. These hype runner IPO's often pop and go up after going public to lofty levels then start selling 3 mo's or whatever ahead of the lockup expirations. Keep BABA on your long term radar...it has 1.6 bil shares unlocking a year after it started trading..now thats gigundo.
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