Short GS again! KEEP buying powder dry to add (scenario below)
Updated
HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AGGRESSIVE, WELL-FUNDED TRADERS. Start Shorting today Tues 12/6 and keep shorting if you buy off on scenario below. I feel this is now a rare opportunity - but hold onto your Tums bottle all the same. GS is 231 with 20 mins. to go today, and it's been holding - but in a narrower range than usual. The RSIs (especially the default 14 pt IA AND HAS BEEN OBSCENELY OVERBOUGHT and it has ben my experience that the longer this RSI remains over 80, the harder and choppier the fall. Macd has signaled - as have the oscillators.
I love trading GS and made one short reco last week which worked out well in the first hour of trading. We are setting up for another pullback for the following reason: the stock has gone parabolic (you do not need me to tell you that!) and parabolas have two sides! Why so much gas in Goldman? Aside from Goldman Grads being in just about every federal and world banking arm, they surround the presidents - and Goldman kicks ass in their bond trading department -- WHEN there is bond volatility. Indeed, this year is setting up for that positive aspect for GS, along with huge deals and the obvious deregulation spark that lit up the financials. Goldman stands to have a great year - but we are a tad ahead of ourselves here - for a logical reason, but it is far from a fundamentally or technically sound reason...
But this insane run since the election may have started on fundamentals - but has shifted to Window dressing by the big retail Mutual Funds(at this moment - AND I FINALLY sense the gas drying up). Am I brilliant? Clearly not - but I have noticed a shift in IBD's "New Buys (by the top 1/3rd best Mutual funds )- and out of 99 funds active in GS, over weeks it has gone from mostly buying to now - out of 99 funds - 55 buyers and 45 net sellers. The smart nimble guys got in and took as much as a 50% upside bite ( or chomp) and now are taking profits and getting the hell out.
The stock has garnered so much attention, the remaining "big boys" who cater to the masses are just dressing up positions for the one time of year when their investors may actually look at the positions carefully - and managers don't want to be asked why or how they dont own GS -- God forbid. BUT BUT BUT..
Today, with the market firing to the upside several times - Goldman has stopped participating - where practically every other day , a few points in the S&P translated to points in GS as funds wanted in before losing more upside potential. Today, however, was important in that a few analysts changed their targets (I think one guy revised his from 189 to 245). HSBC came out and initiated with a 250 target. THIS SAYS THAT EVEN THE LATECOMERS TRYING TO SHOW A GOOD RESEARCH CALL ARE NOT SEEING MUCH MORE UPSIDE HERE.
Start building put positions by whatever style you use - but I would suggest leveraging the hell out of 25% of your trading money on this by rolling into the front week in the < $1.00 range. Use the rest for put or call spreads or whatever your style is -- but the spreads have been especially lucrative when you anticipate the premium deflation that results when the next week becomes the front week (a long way of saying do this on Friday close or Monday 1st 30 mins and you will make money 4 out of 5 times in this environment. I would keep a couple of near positions - and i have built positions out as far as 4 weeks.
It is remotely possible - and I say remotely - that Goldman holds up until the first of January. Hell - they could be doing a deal and decide to prop themselves up as much as possible because stock is currency somewhere in some enormous transaction - with Goldman, strange things definitely happen behind the curtain. But everything i see points to some real heart-thumping pullbacks once the pullbacks start - we could see some amazing jolts of easily 10 to 20 points, on multiple occasions, so trade them all individually if possible) on the downside, so try to hang in. Good luck
I love trading GS and made one short reco last week which worked out well in the first hour of trading. We are setting up for another pullback for the following reason: the stock has gone parabolic (you do not need me to tell you that!) and parabolas have two sides! Why so much gas in Goldman? Aside from Goldman Grads being in just about every federal and world banking arm, they surround the presidents - and Goldman kicks ass in their bond trading department -- WHEN there is bond volatility. Indeed, this year is setting up for that positive aspect for GS, along with huge deals and the obvious deregulation spark that lit up the financials. Goldman stands to have a great year - but we are a tad ahead of ourselves here - for a logical reason, but it is far from a fundamentally or technically sound reason...
But this insane run since the election may have started on fundamentals - but has shifted to Window dressing by the big retail Mutual Funds(at this moment - AND I FINALLY sense the gas drying up). Am I brilliant? Clearly not - but I have noticed a shift in IBD's "New Buys (by the top 1/3rd best Mutual funds )- and out of 99 funds active in GS, over weeks it has gone from mostly buying to now - out of 99 funds - 55 buyers and 45 net sellers. The smart nimble guys got in and took as much as a 50% upside bite ( or chomp) and now are taking profits and getting the hell out.
The stock has garnered so much attention, the remaining "big boys" who cater to the masses are just dressing up positions for the one time of year when their investors may actually look at the positions carefully - and managers don't want to be asked why or how they dont own GS -- God forbid. BUT BUT BUT..
Today, with the market firing to the upside several times - Goldman has stopped participating - where practically every other day , a few points in the S&P translated to points in GS as funds wanted in before losing more upside potential. Today, however, was important in that a few analysts changed their targets (I think one guy revised his from 189 to 245). HSBC came out and initiated with a 250 target. THIS SAYS THAT EVEN THE LATECOMERS TRYING TO SHOW A GOOD RESEARCH CALL ARE NOT SEEING MUCH MORE UPSIDE HERE.
Start building put positions by whatever style you use - but I would suggest leveraging the hell out of 25% of your trading money on this by rolling into the front week in the < $1.00 range. Use the rest for put or call spreads or whatever your style is -- but the spreads have been especially lucrative when you anticipate the premium deflation that results when the next week becomes the front week (a long way of saying do this on Friday close or Monday 1st 30 mins and you will make money 4 out of 5 times in this environment. I would keep a couple of near positions - and i have built positions out as far as 4 weeks.
It is remotely possible - and I say remotely - that Goldman holds up until the first of January. Hell - they could be doing a deal and decide to prop themselves up as much as possible because stock is currency somewhere in some enormous transaction - with Goldman, strange things definitely happen behind the curtain. But everything i see points to some real heart-thumping pullbacks once the pullbacks start - we could see some amazing jolts of easily 10 to 20 points, on multiple occasions, so trade them all individually if possible) on the downside, so try to hang in. Good luck
Note
ITis 10:05 am EST.. several huge blocks over past 30 minutes drove stock up 3... if you are going to buy puts today I would do it NOW
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