Every chart tells a story, but sometimes... you need boxes to make sense of the chaos. Here's how the price action of HLI unfolded through four carefully framed boxes, each revealing a new chapter of this market narrative.
Box 1: The Fall Begins [5 Waves]
The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook.
I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W?
Box 2: The Deceptive Pause [3 Waves]
Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93.
I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot.
Box 3: The Deep Cut [5 Waves Again]
Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99.
Final labeling:
A clear bearish tale. Or was it?
Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds [Impulsive or X2?]
The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard.
Here’s the plot twist:
Key Invalidation Levels
Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely)
Closing Thoughts
Four boxes.
Three corrective legs.
Two competing counts.
One impending breakout — or breakdown.
The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t.
So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter.
Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series
Box 1: The Fall Begins [5 Waves]
The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook.
- Every wave fits: clean subdivisions, sharp acceleration in wave 3, and a modest wave 4.
- This structure confirms one thing: this was no correction — it was the beginning of something bigger.
I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W?
Box 2: The Deceptive Pause [3 Waves]
Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93.
- Classic fakeout setup — just enough strength to draw in bulls, but not enough to erase the previous drop.
- The form and proportion suggest it was just a connector, not a trend changer.
I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot.
Box 3: The Deep Cut [5 Waves Again]
Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99.
- This leg confirms the pattern: it mirrors Box 1, creating the signature 5-3-5 of a zig-zag — or the W-Y of a complex correction.
Final labeling:
- If Box 1 was Wave A, this was Wave C — and together they form a Zig-Zag.
- If Box 1 was Wave W, this became Wave Y, closing a potential WXY correction.
A clear bearish tale. Or was it?
Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds [Impulsive or X2?]
The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard.
- Structurally, it’s looking like a clear 5-wave impulse, with sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v all marked and playing out.
- But wait — if this is just another corrective X wave, it's way too aggressive… isn't it?
Here’s the plot twist:
If price gets rejected below $191.99, this might be Wave X2 in a massive WXYXZ correction.
But if it extends beyond 192 and pushes toward $200, then forget the correction — this rally is likely a new trend, and Wave Z may never arrive.
Key Invalidation Levels
- $191.99: The upper limit for X2 — breach it, and the entire corrective scenario collapses.
- $161.00: The lower guardrail for the impulse — drop below this, and the impulsive interpretation gets voided.
Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely)
- MACD: Momentum slowing.
- RSI: Hovering near 50. Neutral, but bears need a breakdown.
Closing Thoughts
Four boxes.
Three corrective legs.
Two competing counts.
One impending breakout — or breakdown.
The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t.
So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter.
Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.