Long

Spain´s IBEX 35 Ready To Start A New Longterm Bull Market

Updated

After yesterdays Election in the Netherlands defeating Nationalism and Populism in the Netherlands Spains IBEX sending today a strong message showing that the IBEX is ready for a new bull market in the next years.

The IBEX joins stockmarkets in Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and France.

It is no issue right now and traders don´t talk about this: But major European Stockmarkets indicating that the crisis in Europe started in 2007 might end now.

Note

March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

Note

Comment: MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower,-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

Note

For Trump, it was the lost art of the deal

Note

MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html

Note

APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

Note

APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

Note

APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/06/ecbs-draghi-says-monetary-policy-stance-is-still-appropriate.html

Note

APR 17 2017 - China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook as U.S. Consumer Weakens

- Economy on pace to power one-third of global growth in 2017
- Government makes progress in restraining runaway credit growth

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/china-roars-back-to-lift-global-outlook-as-u-s-consumer-weakens

Note

APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&A
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-stocks-shrug-off-global-tensions-and-eye-m-a-474690

Note

APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earnings
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data%2C-geopolitical-risks-474631

Note

APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

Note

Exclusive: Portugal says economy growing faster than forecast investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive:-portugal-says-economy-growing-faster-than-forecast-488109

Note

Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E

Note

Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

Note

All European Long Trades closed on profit taking. For additional information please click on the DAX chart and read further up dates.

Major Negativ Event: Gemany's Carmakers Dragging Down The DAX

Note

Ready to re buy.

Trade active

Re Entry @ 10.400 on January 5th 2018

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