No Recession Signal Yet, From My Personal Indicator (ICSA/ES)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on my personal recession indicator! I've shared it with you before, and now we're going to take an updated look at what is happening with the initial claims/S&P comparison. let's get right to it!
If you recall from my previous analyses on this indicator, I showed how accurately my moving averages have corresponded to previous recessions. Looking at the chart, you can see that when the orange average crossed above the purple average, it corresponded to an exact peak in the S&P 500 (in pink) and global equity markets in general. The first signal occurred in September of 2000, which was at the height of the dot com bubble. The second signal occurred in October of 2007, right near the absolute peak before the great recession. However, since then, there hasn't been a cross of the moving averages. I know a lot of people are talking about trade tensions, inverted yield curves, global debt and so forth, but this indicator isn't currently showing any sign of recession. That doesn't mean that it can't happen soon. It just isn't signaling a recession at the moment.
In fact, what it IS showing is that unemployment in the US is at all time lows, thanks to the job creation policies of President Trump. So, unless there is a sharp reversal in this trend, there is no reason to believe that a recession is immediately imminent. It will eventually come, but I doubt it will be tomorrow. ;)
#PoopLovesYou
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
If you recall from my previous analyses on this indicator, I showed how accurately my moving averages have corresponded to previous recessions. Looking at the chart, you can see that when the orange average crossed above the purple average, it corresponded to an exact peak in the S&P 500 (in pink) and global equity markets in general. The first signal occurred in September of 2000, which was at the height of the dot com bubble. The second signal occurred in October of 2007, right near the absolute peak before the great recession. However, since then, there hasn't been a cross of the moving averages. I know a lot of people are talking about trade tensions, inverted yield curves, global debt and so forth, but this indicator isn't currently showing any sign of recession. That doesn't mean that it can't happen soon. It just isn't signaling a recession at the moment.
In fact, what it IS showing is that unemployment in the US is at all time lows, thanks to the job creation policies of President Trump. So, unless there is a sharp reversal in this trend, there is no reason to believe that a recession is immediately imminent. It will eventually come, but I doubt it will be tomorrow. ;)
#PoopLovesYou
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.