Intel has underperformed recently, trapped in a bear market since 2019 while broader equities soared. Since 2000, shareholders have seen no gains—even with dividends included—leaving long-term investors increasingly frustrated. A market-wide 2008-style crash (see related ideas) could push Intel toward total collapse.
The business is struggling too. Intel missed the AI boom entirely, its Foundry division is faltering, and revenues are shrinking. Before 2020, it posted annual earnings of $10–$20 billion; over the past year, it recorded $10 billion in losses. With $105 billion in net equity—mostly tied to hard assets that are tough to liquidate without losses—Intel’s financial cushion could erode quickly if more problems surface.
Will It Go Bankrupt?
Bankruptcy is possible but improbable. As a critical chip producer, Intel is too vital to U.S. interests to fail outright. I predict a government bailout, though shareholders would likely be wiped out.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Since its bull market ended in 2000—25 years ago—Intel has been locked in consolidation. Now, the price is breaking down on high volume.
It’s trading below the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), a key long-term support level that confirms a bear market.
The consolidation resembles an Elliott Wave ABC correction, with Wave B peaking in 2020. Since then, the price has declined in what appears to be an impulsive Wave C, forming an Ending Diagonal.
When prices break downward from Ending Diagonals—especially alongside a 25-year consolidation breakdown, as is likely here—the move is often swift and severe.
If the price exits both the consolidation and the Ending Diagonal, there’s virtually no support until the $4–$5 range. A market-wide crash could drive it as low as $1.
The business is struggling too. Intel missed the AI boom entirely, its Foundry division is faltering, and revenues are shrinking. Before 2020, it posted annual earnings of $10–$20 billion; over the past year, it recorded $10 billion in losses. With $105 billion in net equity—mostly tied to hard assets that are tough to liquidate without losses—Intel’s financial cushion could erode quickly if more problems surface.
Will It Go Bankrupt?
Bankruptcy is possible but improbable. As a critical chip producer, Intel is too vital to U.S. interests to fail outright. I predict a government bailout, though shareholders would likely be wiped out.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Since its bull market ended in 2000—25 years ago—Intel has been locked in consolidation. Now, the price is breaking down on high volume.
It’s trading below the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), a key long-term support level that confirms a bear market.
The consolidation resembles an Elliott Wave ABC correction, with Wave B peaking in 2020. Since then, the price has declined in what appears to be an impulsive Wave C, forming an Ending Diagonal.
When prices break downward from Ending Diagonals—especially alongside a 25-year consolidation breakdown, as is likely here—the move is often swift and severe.
If the price exits both the consolidation and the Ending Diagonal, there’s virtually no support until the $4–$5 range. A market-wide crash could drive it as low as $1.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.