Short

Updated

French Election Fears To See Here

The spread between German Bunds and France or Italian Goverment Bonds are rising again.

On Monday, April 11th 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France.

"We would expect French bond spreads (and yields) to come under upward pressure if the first round of the Presidential election were to result in a strong showing of anti-establishment parties," Goldman said in a note to clients.

This Chart is showing the bets against Europe via IT10Y-DE10Y. Traders might notice hat the spread now is higher than before December 4h 2016 (Renzi Constitutional Referendum.

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APR 11 2017- France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.

The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win.
Political polling recently has been a terrible predictor of actual election results, internationally. Polls heading into last year's Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential election were mostly wrong, causing shockwaves across financial markets.
In France, investors predict that a Le Pen or Melenchon victory would likewise send markets into a frenzy.
Quote: cnbc.com/2017/04/10/goldman-sachs-recommends-a-market-bet-as-elections-loom-in-france.html

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APR 12 2017: Spread rising today by 11,69% (!).
As mentioned in the past weeks and month: There are huge Billion-Euro bets against Europe outstanding now.

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APR 12 2017 - This aren´t peanuts. This are multi billion Euro or Dollar bets aganist Europe based on fears and probably not precise research about the upcomming France election. The main argument is that "polls had been wrong" before the Brexit and the US-Election.

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APR 14 2017: French presidential race tightens further as vote looms
Source: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN17G0Q2

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APR 13 2017 Poll: Macron taking the Lead, LePen drops to the lowest level since 18 month.

23,5% Macron
22,5% LePen
20,0% Fillon
18,5% Melenchon

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APR 14 2017: Marine LePen losing more voters

23% Macron
22% LePen
20% Fillon
20% Melechon

The French elction now is unpredictable.

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APR 17 2017: Election is getting more and more unpredictable

Opinion Way polls:
22% Macron
22% LePen
21% Fillon

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APR 17 2017 - "Le Terrian" poll first time showing LePen only 3rd.
24% Macron
22% Melenchon
21,5% LePen
17,5% Fillon
Source for all polls: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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APR 18 2017 - Spreads now not extending, first time since a couple of trading days. Momentum is stoppend.

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APR 18 2017 Europe's 'fear gauge' is rising ahead of first presidential vote in France this weekend
cnbc.com/2017/04/18/frances-borrowing-costs-are-under-pressure-as-political-uncertainty-rises-ahead-of-first-presidential-vote.html

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APR 18 2017 Spread German Bunds - IT 10Y Bonds shrinking even rising Fears

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APR 18 2017: Euro up - unexpectedly

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APR 19 2017: Macron clings on to lead in tense French election race
Centrist Emmanuel Macron held on to his lead as favorite to win France's presidential election, a closely-watched poll showed on Wednesday, although it showed that the first round of voting at the weekend Sunday remains too close to call. Source: investing.com/news/world-news/macron,-le-pen-cling-on-to-first-round-lead-in-french-election-race:-le-monde-cevipof-poll-475261

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APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest

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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

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APR 25 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round two
investing.com/news/world-news/le-pen-not-an-option-as-french-far-left-polls-members-on-election-round-two-477426

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Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightly
investing.com/news/world-news/macron-campaign-for-french-presidency-off-to-slower-start-than-le-pen:-poll-477875

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Italy's Renzi regains party leadership with big primary win
investing.com/news/world-news/italy's-renzi-looks-set-to-regain-party-leadership-478837

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Bundspreads sending a clear signal:

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Macron's Win: The Center Holds Firm in France
Independent centrist Emmanuel Macron beat out far-right Marine Le Pen with 65 percent of the vote.
theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/macron-wins-french-election-2017/525390/

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Bundspreads before election:

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Bundspreads after election: Pros shorting the markets:

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IT 10 Y ...

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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E

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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

Trade closed: target reached

Trade closed. The Bundspreads showing that the "rise on populism trades" by oversea investors failed completely.

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